Toyota is clearly feeling a bit anxious about how the EV winds are blowing. They took a huge gamble on pioneering their Hybrid Synergy Drive (“HSD”) in the Prius in 1997, and expanded its use in many of its other models to considerable success. And in the process, became the green darling of the automotive scene. No more, as Tesla has taken that mantle, and European and Chinese automakers race headlong towards mass implementation of full EVs threatening to turn hybrids into the automotive dodo bird.
Toyota gambled hugely on hybrids as a more cost-effective solution towards reduced emissions, and has become a laggard in EVs. Their fuel cell vehicles sell in minute amounts. In a last-ditch effort to expand hybrid technology to help stave off EVs a bit longer, Toyota is offering the patents to its technology for free and is willing to sell its hybrid components to any takers at reasonable prices.
Too little, too late?
Objectively speaking, hybrids are a relatively low-cost, low-risk way to reduce emissions considerably. And currently, Toyota is doing very well in Europe with its hybrids as an alternative to diesels. Currently 60% of its European sales are hybrids, and it offers hybrid versions in almost all its line except for RWD trucks.
But the situation in the US is quite different, as Prius sales have been falling badly for the past few years, down almost 25% in 2018. It’s no secret as to why: there’s two kinds of Prius buyers. Those committed to driving the lowest emitting vehicles have rapidly shifted to Teslas and other EVs, as for them, hybrids were always just an interim step to pure EVs. This also explains why plug-in hybrids haven’t made really significant progress either: buyers are not that wild about hauling around a complete IC drive train and a tank of gas when they’re only needed for longer trips. The demand by the green market seems to be almost purely for pure EVs, as seen by strong Tesla sales.
And the other segment of buyers were those who bought Prii during the years when gas prices were high, as the Prius was simply the most cost-effective car to drive, hence their popularity as taxis. But cheap gas prices have made that largely irrelevant, and the percentage of hybrid versions of other Toyotas in the US has also languished.
Toyota is hoping to win support from the Chinese government to encourage wider adoption of hybrids there, but China is by far the world’s leader in EVs, and it seems unlikely that Toyota will make substantial inroads there.
The other factor that hasn’t helped either is that conventional IC cars continue to improve their efficiency, narrowing the gap with hybrids.
The current global share of hybrids is about 3%. That’s actually not very much after two decades. It’s clearly stalled, at least for now. Meanwhile, EVs current global market share is already at 1.5% and rising rapidly. At the current trajectories, EV will eclipse hybrid sales within a couple of years. Whether Toyota can do anyhting about that seems a bit doubtful.
Are they doing the same thing as when Tesla announced they were “opening” their patents up to anyone? ‘cos Tesla had a little clause in the fine print which said if you used any of their intellectual property, you had to agree to make all of your own IP related to electrified vehicles open to all as well.
not surprising, then, that they didn’t have many takers.
Where I live, the new Corolla – which hit the dealerships two weeks ago – is hybrid only, as is the latest Rav4. The Camry is being re-launched after a ten year gap as a hybrid only. The C-HR sells mostly as a hybrid and is very popular. The Prius is not popular, presumably because it looks so “challenging”. The latest CR-V is hybrid instead of diesel, I believe there is now a hybrid option on the HR-V, and the next generation Civic will have a hybrid option. The cost of motoring is driven by Co2 taxes and fuel taxes – changes in the price of crude make very little difference.
Sometimes I see a Nissan Leaf or a Renault Zoe, and it’s a red-letter day when I see a Tesla.(I gather Leaf replacement parts are very costly and not readily available.) Pure EVs are a left-field choice and will continue that way.
I suspect dirt-cheap gas prices in the US are cutting into hybrid sales. Combined, do hybrid + EV sales compose even 5% of US sales?
I vividly recall when hybrids (specificially, the Prius) were the Latest Big Thing (LBT) and sales really took off during the big gas price spike of Hurricane Katrina. It wasn’t long after that the then head of Toyota was claiming that, in the near future, every Toyota model would have a hybrid version.
Clearly, that hasn’t entirely come to pass (where’s the Sienna hybrid?). Even worse was how Toyota has both severely underestimated the EV market, as well as the styling direction of the most recent, quite bizarre looking Prius. If I were in the market, I’d be cross-shopping the Prius against such stout competition as the Kia Niro and Hyundai Ionic.
Then, when Toyota did finally offer a PHEV version of the Prius in 2012, it ended up being a quite tepid effort with an EV range of a paltry 11 miles (with real world being substantially less). The current PHEV Prius Prime does a bit better with a claimed range of 25 miles in EV-mode.
I think the issue is simply one of Toyota having a bad case of GM-beancounter-itis. The investment in hybrid technology was huge, and Toyota, rather than going forward into EV technology, made the financial decision to stick with Hybrid Synergy Drive over the long haul to recoup the R&D costs.
Unfortunately, that ultra-conservative GM mindset has allowed competitors to overtake them in the burgeoning EV market. Ironically, it seems that GM has moved on from hybrids and PHEVs with the recent cancellation of the PHEV Volt, yet sticking with the BEV Bolt.
With 200+ mile range becoming the norm, the real challenge today to widespread EV acceptance is infrastructure. Toyota gambled that it would take much longer for EVs to become mainstream and that, more than anything else, is likely why they’ve chosen to take a backseat and let others spearhead the EV effort.
While there’s no denying Toyota’s contribution to the green car market with the Prius, by resting on their hybrid laurels, it seems like they’ve dropped the EV ball and allowed others to scoop it up.
I largely agree with you. It’s glass-half-full vs. glass-half-empty, only it’s “Toyota is steady and conservative and ultimately shrewd” versus “Toyota is powerful but complacent and tight with their money”
They’re still a juggernaut but this shows they’re not invincible. Not investing in BEVs when the world’s largest car market is going all-in and they’re seeing a rapid rise in Europe and the US is short-sighted. Keeping hybrids around, however, is a wise choice for less BEV-receptive markets like Australia and countries with mediocre charging infrastructure.
Well put. Toyota is in the same conundrum that GM had found itself for so many years: they’re on top, and now have to figure out how to stay there. They struck gold with the Prius, but it was a huge gamble, and they’re loath to roll the dice again, even though they could afford to do it more readily than any other vehicle manufacturer in the world.
Not exactly the plan of a market leader, but it’s a whole lot safer.
Interesting. My best friend just bought a 2016 Lexus RX 450h from Carvana. It arrived yesterday. I helped pick it out, so we’ll see how it does, but he was getting 35+ MPG consistently, which is great for a larger luxury vehicle.
The mileage of the hybrid RX and Highlander is impressive. And given that the actual amount of fuel savings is significantly greater with a larger vehicle like these, it’s a great opportunity to affect big savings. If I were in the market for an SUV, that’s what I would be getting.
What’s great is that Toyota opened up the Hybrid to all the trim levels on the Highlander a couple of years ago. When we got ours you had to get the top of the line Limited Platinum version to get a Hybrid, almost $16,000 more than our XLE was at the time which made no sense. If we did it all over again, the XLE Hybrid isn’t terribly more than the regular XLE (which doesn’t get particularly good mileage but at least it uses regular gas as opposed to the current Lexus RX Hybrid which requires Premium thus wiping out part/much of the savings over the regular RX which calls for regular).
I don’t know if it’s still the case, but the RAV4 Hybrid used to be a veritable bargain. When it was compared feature-for-feature, it only cost something like $873 more than a regular RAV4 XLE with the same option groups.
The point was, if you were planning on getting a loaded RAV4 XLE, anyway, might as well pony up the low amount of extra cash and get a hybrid version, as well.
I’ve had a RAV4 Hybrid for 18months and 13k miles now and been quite pleased. Best fuel economy you can get in a SUV this side of the Model X.
Fuel economy has been 31-32 on road trips and 33ish in town on my commute cycle. As so much of my driving in in hills and over Donner Pass on I80 the re-gen breaking is great.
I still believe there is a strong case for hybrid and especially in the booming “make everything AWD” markets. It’s relatively simple to make a hybrid into an AWD WITHOUT a machanical connection, a la Highlander, RAV4, and now Prius. The new Corolla, since it’s available in Hybrid, could do this as well, and I’m guessing the Camry could too, if the Altima in AWD really takes off I see this as happening – Note that in the Denver/Mountain States area, Altima is up over 50% in the last three months, and 80% of those are AWD, i.e. most of the gain is in the AWD sector. No they aren’t rock crawlers but for making someone feel more secure in rain or snow, sure. (and before anyone says that FWD with winter tires is just as good, don’t forget that you can also put winter tires on a AWD for even more goodness)
The upcharge for Hybrid is not very much anymore, Honda’s Accord LX vs LX hybrid difference is $1600, same equipment otherwise. For that you go from 30/39 to 47/47. The payback is 3-4yrs depending how much one drives IF one assumes that resale value of the hybrid option is zero, which it isn’t. I drove both last week and there isn’t any real difference between them, if anything the hybrid was quieter and faster in normal traffic. I didn’t see a downside.
Pure electrics face their largest detractors in the states with wide open spaces and less charging infrastructure (real or perceived). ANY vehicle could be hybridized relatively easily, and those gains in MPG can be realized by anyone, anywhere. Many if not most hybrids have been proven to be quite reliable, and the transmissions are often much simpler than conventional transmissions. Battery issues are few and far between these days and recycling/replacement options abound should a battery ever need to be replaced for at least the most popular ones.
So no, I think hybrid remains a fantastic option and if anything am surprised we aren’t seeing more of it in trucks, vans etc. A small MPG gain in a lowMPG vehicle is significantly more effective than the same small MPG gain in a highMPG car.
Yes, Jim, you’ve really put your finger on the sweet spot for hybrids today, and that’s the low mpg trucks and vans. That’s where the economy of a hybrid can have the most impact.
Here in the US Toyota offers hybrid and hybrid AWD versions of the Highlander SUV and RAV4 crossover. Ford is said to be developing both hybrid and pure electric versions of the F-150 pickup. That could have a substantial impact on both CAFE and the CO2 problem if Ford prices and promotes it right.
There’s been considerable rumors and speculation about Toyota coming out with a RWD system for its trucks. It essentially exists already, as the Lexus LS has had a hybrid version for years.
They need to do something. Their mpg record on pickups is abysmal compared to GM/Ford/Ram. That Toyota, an mpg champ, can’t even hit the middle of the 1/2 ton market for efficiency is a mystery to me.
The don’t “need” to because they’ve been selling all the Tundras they can make. They are severely capacity constrained, or they have been, at San Antonio. Now that they have a second truck plant in Mexico for the Tacoma, the possibility exists for them to sell larger volumes of Tundras.
Tundras sell on their class-best reliability and resale value, not a couple of EPA mpg numbers.
I certainly agree with everything Jim stated. I would add that in view of the really low price increment for a hybrid, there seems to be something that is driving the motoring public away from them. Is it that hybrids convey an image that the owner is less rugged and adventurous and thereby inadequate compared to those buying conventional vehicles? The engineering of hybrids is of a level that many people who are attracted to innovation should have purchased them. Once you have owned one, a conventional vehicle makes absolutely no sense.
In the case of the current Accord you’d be hard-pressed to even know it’s a Hybrid, the tiny badge on the back is hard to read, VERY small and could easily say anything, it certainly doesn’t scream “YO, HYBRID OVER HERE!!!” Honda doesn’t offer any lease support money on them as opposed to the regular gas-powered line, so maybe that’s it, so many people are leasing and it ends up costing more (?) so they avoid them. Well, that, and there simply aren’t as many on the lot as the regular ones so there is less choice I suppose. But yeah, (IF) all other things are pretty much equal, why not?
Agree
The most effective use of a hybrid, I think, would be a large pickup driven in a hilly area for loooong distances. Frequently. Hybrids don’t benefit you much on extremely flat terrain with no stops or speed changes.
Hybrids do have significantly better mileage at steady speeds too, because their engines operate on the modified Atkinson cycle, which is more efficient, but yields less torque, which the electric motor compensates for when needed. Although the hybrid’s improved efficiency is greatest on the city cycle, all of Toyota’s hybrids also yield pretty substantial improvements on the highway cycle too.
MPG improvements do not translate linearly to dollar savings.
Doh! Really? Did I say otherwise?
The Accord Hybrid as an example is rated at 47/47. The Accord LX non-hybrid is at 30/39 so yes there seems to be a benefit everywhere.
The dollar savings between 39 and 47 is small compared to 12 and 20. You would have to sit down and play with some numbers to realize this.
Which I clearly addressed in the last sentence of the original comment you replied to. At the end of the day 47 is still better than 39 but whatever.
US patents have a 20-year lifetime, non-renewable. Toyota started producing the Prius in Japan in 1997, and brought it to the US in 2000. (That’s when I bought our first Prius.) So the fundamental US patents on Toyota’s superior full hybrid system must be expiring by now. There are thousands of later refinement patents that still have some lifetime. Such patents are usually very narrow and specific, so they may or may not be useful to another company.
My opinion on your headline question is too little, too late. I’m guessing that patents are not a major impediment to other companies entering the full hybrid space.
It probably involves patents and production processes that have brought down the cost of the system significantly. And a stated, Toyota is eager to sell the whole system, as it undoubtedly has extra capacity, and larger volume would only lower its unit costs a bit further.
IIRC Ford has some IP in this area as well and they cut a cross license/share deal in the early 2000s.
Paul said “Those committed to driving the lowest emitting vehicles have rapidly shifted to Teslas and other EVs, as for them, hybrids were always just an interim step to pure EVs.” Yep, that’s me. Our 2010 Prius, which was my commuting car originally, is driven infrequently now that I drive an 80-mile-range EV. The Prius is our car for more than two people (we’re empty nesters), dogs, larger loads and/or road trips. A bigger hybrid and a small EV make a nice combination actually.
My enthusiasm about hybrids and now EVs has been both environmental and technological. I’m surely not the only nerd who wants to be driving the highest-tech car I can, who has shifted from Prius to an EV.
I’ve been EV-crazy ever since GM’s Electrovair experiment when I was a kid.
I am fascinated by the situation with Hybrids, as it really showcases some of the risks/rewards associated with developing and marketing higher mileage/lower emission vehicles. My hat goes off to Toyota for being a pioneer in the space, but they have struggled to find the long-term market opportunity.
That said, Hybrids make so much sense to me as an alternative to traditional ICE vehicles as well as pure EVs. While Hybrids are by definition a compromise, they help address the fuel consumption and emissions of ICE vehicles and “range anxiety” and any time/anywhere/any weather usability concerns for EVs. As such, at least to my way of thinking, Hybrids go a long way toward actually delivering “real world” capabilities that provide “everyday” people with smart solutions that consume less fuel and emit less pollution.
So why aren’t they doing better in the marketplace? I’d argue that there is a rather large schism among buyers right now. There’s the “green brigade” who want the latest and greatest new technology for efficiency and zero pollution–Hybrids are “old news” and “suboptimal” for these buyers. Then there are value shoppers, who want the most car for the least money, and are satisfied with the current ICE capabilities, since they are now much more capable/efficient than they have been in years past–so these buyers feel comfortable skipping the Hybrid price premium.
I am a good example of a target customer that would buy a Hybrid in a heartbeat, at least in the right vehicle for my tastes. While I respect the Prius, I just don’t want one. I won’t consider an EV, since they don’t fit my lifestyle or driving needs. But I’d happily buy a Hybrid Luxury SUV (sadly for Toyota, Lexus is not my style, but if they improved the looks….).
So I wouldn’t count Hybrids out just yet, and I don’t underestimate Toyota’s ability to play the long game and deliver innovative, everyday useful products that please many types of customers and generate strong sales and profits. No one is making money on EVs right now, which is an Achilles heel for continued growth. Plus I think people are currently underestimating the broad-based behavioral changes and infrastructure requirements needed for EVs to massively scale rapidly. Moving from money losing EVs targeting early adopters to fielding a profitable array of mass market EVs is an incredibly difficult challenge that will likely drive a number of automakers to ruin. But I don’t think Toyota will be one of them.
There is another factor and that is simply ignorance by the general public. My In-laws wanted to buy (and did buy) a new car very recently. They asked me my opinion and when I suggested among other cars a Kia Niro (as mileage was to be a criteria), my MIL was interested until I mentioned it was a hybrid.
Then it was like a switch had been turned and she refused to believe that the battery didn’t need replacing and wouldn’t even let me discuss the fact that even if it did, them being in CA the battery warranty is something like ten years and 120k miles (FAR longer than they’d ever keep the thing and even longer than most states). It was just total obliviousness with zero interest in learning anything.
And these aren’t stupid people by any means, but somewhere they got it into their heads that the batteries are a problem and that’s that, and at their age there is zero convincing them otherwise once they believe something. They are not alone in this, we still get the occasional comment even here on CC from people that think a Prius can’t go 50k miles without puking its battery. (although it has gotten better overall in here at least)
Hmmm, you might be onto something there regarding the general public. Have cell phones, laptops and other battery-powered electronics trained people to expect a rechargeable battery to wear out in a few years?
Those batteries are not managed nearly as well as hybrid and EV batteries. For one example, the original US Prius only ever uses half its available battery capacity to insure extreme longevity. But in cellphones and laptops, size, weight and running time per charge are squeezed hard by the marketplace, very bad for the battery.
Probably. I’ve had people cite the lifespan of their laptop or cell phone’s battery as “proof” that a hybrid’s battery pack will require frequent replacement.
When it comes to Smartphones, Tablets etc I also think many folks hammer on em’ running them down to low before charging vs. keeping them in their ‘happy place’ of 45-80%.
This is the result of years of concerted efforts to smear hybrids. Remember all the endlessly repeated stories about how horrible hybrid battery production was for the environment, and other such crap? These originated with certain agenda organizations, and quite possibly funded also by the domestic auto makers, or the oil industry. All you had to do was write “Prius” and there would be a shit storm of negative comments, largely about how its environmental benefits didn’t really exist.
And now it’s all shifted to Tesla….
This morning I took a 14 mile trip on urban freeways, in 40 degree weather, and upon reaching my destination my Prius said 50.6 mpg. I returned two hours later, with a tail wind and slightly downhill and it showed 65.5. I know that it is about 4% optimistic in its calculations, but why would a rationale person not pay $1600 more to have fuel mileage like that?
Very interesting piece, Paul. My opinions of hybrids were formed a long time ago, including that their production caused more pollution than their use reduced. I thought about it and remembered I first heard about that from Jeremy Clarkson. Just one of those things that one hears and accepts because it seems logical without doing any more research. Being in the post-truth society requires extra vigilance I suppose. But first, I will watch one more Russian car crash video or watch Clarkson make an apartment building from an old Citroen…
Congratulations on your increased vigilance. It’s a highly necessary quality to navigate all the BS and fake news.
I cannot bear Clarkson, because in his desperate efforts to entertain folks he has spewed huge amounts of misinformation. All of his shows were 100% rigged, and he would/will say whatever he thinks will generate the most views/clicks/controversy. I don’t find that funny.
That whole episode when he tested a Tesla Roadster and it ran out of battery power was of curse totally staged, as well as his anti-Prius tirades/charades.
My son and I watch Top Gear occasionally. When he was younger he asked me once “did that REALLY happen?” and my answer was “Nothing happens by accident on Top Gear, not even the accidents”
So when that whole thing about Clarkson punching someone just as the other two’s contracts were up happened, then The Grand Tour was announced. My son and I looked at each other and said “Nothing happens by accident on Top Gear”
This is interesting stuff, I am a late adoptor / luddite when it comes to electric & hybrid vehicles but I realize that has a lot more to do with me than it does with the technology. 😉
Mein gott, the Clarkson point is one you make with more than some regularity, Niedemeyer. And it’s a point that entirely misses another one, probably because you’re American*. Look, the show was was made by the BBC Light Entertainment unit, NOT news or documentaries. It rated it’s socks off precisely because it was hardly a car show. (Only pretty dull nerds, few in number, would watch a car show. Or read an old car site*). Everybody understood that it was all performance, not information. In short, it was an extended monument to the great English tradition of irony, something Americans never really do understand*. And as for Clarkson himself, whilst he’s someone I wouldn’t want to spend time with, he is a very clever*, highly intelligent person whose shtick (within limits) can occaisonally be very funny indeed.
And anyway – for the few who took it in any way seriously – unlike some crass ideolog pounding the airwaves with crap that results in actual hurt and hate, the only “victims” here were inanimate objects from a powerful industry well-placed to look after itself.
Don’t take it seriously. The entire point of it was to enjoy the fact that it was not.
*denotes irony
Very interesting. What sold us on the Camry hybrid was that my sister-in-law had one and recommended it very, very highly. She had an ’07, bought new; by summer of 2012, she and her family had put 125,000 miles on it, with no complaints and no big service items–just routine maintenance. That sold us; we bought an ’09 that had about 38,000 miles; it’s up to nearly 118,000 now, and it really has been routine scheduled maintenance, except for a water pump. No battery issues at all. My in-laws, in their mid to late 80s, have had a couple of Priuses, and now have a RAV4 hybrid. They love the things.
Yeah there are a lot of people who just don’t get it. I went through something similar recently with my MIL. We essentially took her ancient Ranger away and told her that she would now be driving my wife’s old 2013 C-Max and she immediately said “I don’t know how to drive a Hybrid” and while to an extent that is true, she quickly adapted and seeing the low end MPG numbers is making her ecstatic.
I have been perfectly happy with my 2015 Camry Hybrid. It has averaged 41 mpg over 47,000 miles (calculated the old-fashioned way, miles driven divided by gallons used). This compares with an overall average of 28 mpg with my previous 2004 Camry 4-cylinder used in the same manner.
Because the gas tank is the same size as the one in the Camry with only the ICE (17 gallons), it’s no problem to routinely go 600 miles between fill-ups.
The range was the biggest let down when our 2010 Fusion Hybrid was totaled, In the summer when you filled it up you would see the distance to empty to exceed 700mi though we typically filled it around 650 miles on the tank. Unfortunately they stopped putting such large tanks in their Hybrids.
This is very interesting news. Auto maker seldom so open to let competitors use its own technology. Few years back, Ford has to settle the hybrid patent issue with Toyota. In my view, Toyota wants to stay in the car business as long as it can, being it seems having no plan to embrace the EV trend anytime. As matter of fact, it walked away from its partial ownership of Tesla. As a savvy company, it may know what we we do not know that the battery technology is still away from replacing fossil fuel. In public domain, Toyota is betting on fuel cell technology vehicle to replace the internal combustion engine vehicle. This is total diverse today’s EV.
I don’t believe hybrids are going away anytime soon. Pure EVs are going to be unworkable in certain parts of the country for a very long time.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the Prius unable to run solely on battery at freeway speeds? The Ford Fusion and C-Max can. We have a Fusion halfbreed at work that I drove on a route for a year and was regularly getting 50-52 mpg tanks. The current drivers have it down to 35. Our C-Max at home is ok but I wish it had a bigger battery. I did manage a 60 mpg run from Crestline to Escondido and 80 once from Point Loma to Oceanside with it. Neither of the Fords are the plug in flavor. Between the ugly factor and the sad performance of the first generation Prius, it is no wonder that they aren’t selling. I was driving a stock Vega wagon and on any hill the Prius was an obstacle. Pretty bad when you can’t keep up with a Vega.
The regular Prius, like pretty much all non-plug-in hybrids, cannot run solely on battery power at highway speeds except for very short duration. They don’t have enough battery capacity for that.
But all plug-in hybrids can, to varying degrees. There may still be circumstances that engage the IC engine in them too, even while they’re still running mostly on battery power. Plug in hybrids have significantly bigger batteries. The EV range of a regular Prius is only a couple of miles, and at generally low speeds.
The basic design of the “power-split” style hybrid system creates a critical speed for the motor/generator that is connected to the planetary gear set. The earliest Prius has a 2x mph critilcal speed for that motor. The early Fords put that up to 45 mph. Toyota did up it for the PIP but Ford is the leader currently with 85 mph engine off operation. Throw in a little down grade and I can get a mile or two at 70 something mph in our Fords.
I forgot to add that they upped the critical speed to 60 IIRC for the PIP.
A Niro is high on my wish list, and I’m getting close to having to replace my ’04 Sebring.
The price premium of hybrids use to scare me away, but the look of the Prius was truly frightening.
Now, I guess I can have my car and eat it, too. Well, you know what I mean.
I remember my first ride on a Prius. My wife made me do it. I refused to drive, and we bought something else. I hated the styling, I explained, but maybe the concept had some merit.
Five years later, I was helping my daughter choose a safe, economical car for college. Time was short. The criteria was, “hatchback, good mileage, under 50,000 miles and $15K.” Since we were in hybrid-friendly Seattle, something called the “C-Max” came up in searches. We took a long test drive. None of the hybrid handicaps I’d read about were showing up. The transition between gas and EV were imperceptible, and the car was plenty powerful, and notably quiet, and rode well, with steering as crisp as my GTI, but faster. I simply couldn’t find anything to complain about, except for the styling.
Today, there are two Fords in the family: a 2014 Hybrid (38 mpg, mostly city) and a 2017 Energi (64 mpg, not counting 80 cents worth of shore power per day). I’m completely converted. It’s hard to see the price/performance/economy equation getting much better than this. Longer EV range requires a much larger, heavier battery. The non-luxury hybrids introduced since then, such as the Niro, are way down on power from the 195-HP C-max Energi.
I wonder if I only found this solution because I was looking for a car for someone else? That way I could think outside my own boundaries, and wind up expanding them.
Hybrids are not going to die anytime soon. Well done a hybrid system is the most cost effective power train plain and simple. We just picked up our 5th though it is actually a Plug in being a C-Max Energi. My Wife wouldn’t even consider a starndard ICE powered vehicle at this point. Going with the Energi version was in part due to the fact that in the used market they are the same price as the standard Hybrid version and as a bit of a test to see if she will faithfully plug in which she has so far and there are days when it will get topped off at home mid day and go out again for another 100% EV trip later.
We’ll have to see the Escape/Corsair when they hit the show rooms but it is highly likely a 2021 PHEV of one or the other will follow us home before the Tax credit is cut on the Fords.
I purchased a 2015 C-Max Energi last year. So far so good, with no issues to date. Gets at least 37 MPG and when you charge the battery, it goes up to 50/60 MPG depending on city vs. highway driving. Only downside is the large battery pack in the back. On EV only, you can get about 25 miles of range.
I’m not sure Toyota’s situation is as dire as it seems right now. The company already has partnership agreements with Mazda and Subaru, two companies that will probably want to start developing better battery and EV tech sooner or later. Mazda is no stranger to working with automakers as evidenced by their collaboration with Ford, and they’ve already supplied Toyota with a new Yaris, plus the two companies are currently building a plant that will produce two of their respective vehicles. And Subaru is employing Toyota’s hybrid tech in their Crosstrek. If Ford, Mazda, and Volvo can get together and produce mutually beneficial vehicle platforms then I have no doubt that three Japanese companies can do the same.
Just goes to show that the NEVS Swedish-Chinese consortium was smart to buy SAAB and turn it into a pure EV, despite many former owners who wanted it to become a PI hybrid, and they’re going well beyond EV to explore new technology in batteries and car-sharing or using networking as well.
The C-max is a heck of a deal, we were car shopping and our local Ford dealer had 4 1 year old models that hadn’t sold on the back row heavily discounted. Almost 4 years into it and so far so good. It is not the plug in model and it will cruise on the freeway in EV mode for a couple of miles. Set the cruise at 70 and it still turns 45+ mpg between here and Lake Elsinore. Kinda fun to try and hypermile it around town. I shudder to think what an EV would cost to charge here as our local utility has gone to time of use billing. Our on peak can cost as much as $.41/Kwh. On peak for residential is late afternoon and evening until 9P.M. Thieves.
One could make a strong argument that batteries be more effective many in 6-8kWh plug in setups that concentrated in a relative handful of pure 200mi+ EVs.
Lots of really good points made in comments here. Here’s mine pennysworth.
Firstly, Toyota’s hybrid tech is 20 years old. The company famously lost lots of money on the entire first gen Prius, so I think we can safely assume that tech is long since amortised. Offering it for free is surely as much PR as a business decision (that is if it is even free, as first comment points out).
Secondly, Toyota is still the only company to make profits from electrified vehicles. Tesla’s model 3 was analysed (and the article referred on this site) as being “30% profitable”, except, they clearly aren’t, or Tesla would be making money. Because the biggest cost was and is the $20K battery itself, which is necessarily bigger in an EV. (Which is also why Volkswagens recent guff about about $20K electric Golfs in a few years was PR bollocks).
Thirdly, Toyota themselves said in 2017 that they have the tech to move to large scale EV when needed because of their long-term investment in battery and electric tech in their Hybrids. Being Toyota, I don’t doubt them. Remember, this very conservative outfit made the complex hybrid tech Toyoreliable from the get-go. (Admittedly, Tesla has done the same with pure EV, which is itself quite remarkable, if profitless thus far).
Fourthly, Toyota is no GM. It is a juggernaut that last year made an unimaginable $20 billion in profit – that’s $20 BILLION! It has enormous cash reserves, and there has never been a hint of arrogance (ala GM, or now, VW) from this firm.
Fourthly, the sudden brake on diesels in Europe will of necessity need replacement, and for many, hybrids are ideal (as English commenter Uncle Mellow comment shows).
Fifth, there’s along life yet for ICE cars, and hybrid is still the perfect transition. EV’s just aren’t suitable for many city people without easy access to charging, or rural folk with long distances. If Toyota needed to make a 45mpg Tundra hybrid, it would be on the market tomorrow. And it is just not the case that petrol cars are close to hybrid mileage in the real world: they simply aren’t.
Finally, Jim Klein’s point about consumer stupidity is key. Anyone under about, say, 35, largely doesn’t much give a shit about how/what powers their car, as they’re entirely used to the tech working reliably. By my age group and up – 50 – we’re full of prejudice and fear, simply because it’s not the world as we knew it. Convincing a whole bunch of monied consumers that hybrids and EV’s are proper everyday things is the biggest marketing hurdle of all, made ever more difficult in a polarising world where even the bloody engine in your car becomes an idealogical sign.
Toyota’s quality is respected the world over. GM’s never was, at least not since the early ’50’s. Outside the ole US of A, it was widely known that whilst a lot of what they made was good stuff, lots was also crappy, and none was ever the best you could get. For Toyota, too little and too late is a wee bit excitable. Toyota MAY suffer a dip – from, I dunno, $20 down to $10 bill profit – but they’ll be well-in on any wholsesale EV transition, and ultimately likely a leader.
i posted at length, it’s f-ed off, could a kindly moderator have a look for me please?
It probably is too little too late for Toyota on sharing it’s technology, but I don’t think hybrid technology is completely dead yet. Toyota just need to do some updates on their technology to increase the performance IMO. My wife and I replaced our Civic with a 2010 Prius and it was a great car for us. We sold it only to move to a larger car after more five years of ownership with over 100K trouble free miles. If it had not been for the Prius just being too small for our family duties, we’d probably still own it today.
We were shopping for a new car in 2016 and I was considering another Prius if they updated the larger Prius V. They didn’t and when I saw the Gen IV Prius I was instantly turned off by it’s poor styling. I was also hoping for increase performance, which it didn’t have. Our Prius was a good car, fantastic on fuel (lifetime average of 47 MPG US according to my spreadsheet), but I cannot say I enjoyed driving it. Despite the fact the electric motors added some torque, that car labored so much in the hills, and had such sluggish acceleration it was very unenjoyable for me to drive. We ended up with a ’16 Outback as our replacement. Even though on paper it has similar performance to the Prius, it feels much stronger and labours far less. Despite the big fuel economy hit, it is much more enjoyable and comfortable to drive. On the other hand, while my wife likes the Outback, she didn’t mind the Prius either and she still praises the car today.
For our next car (which shouldn’t be a for a while), I will strongly consider going back to a hybrid, especially because we do a lot more short trips now than when we had the Prius. As much as I prefer the wagon style of the Outback over the crossover Rav, I’d strongly look at a Rav Hybrid if I were car shopping today. The Camry/Accord Hybrid would be a great choice, if they had more cargo room. I prefer a car to a cross over, but they just don’t have enough cargo room.
I was fortunate to not need a new car until very recently, because my own semi-luddite propensity makes me leery of the complexity of a hybrid drivetrain. When I did need to squeeze the trigger on a brand new vehicle two months ago, I bought an EV, and the simplicity of the drivetrain gave it significant appeal over the hybrid alternatives.
“Toyota is hoping to win support from the Chinese government to encourage wider adoption of hybrids there, but China is by far the world’s leader in EVs, and it seems unlikely that Toyota will make substantial inroads there.”
Quite true. The CCP is unlikely to willingly hand over market share to a Japanese company, especially in green vehicles, for reasons that have nothing to do with market forces.