Picture this: It’s 11:30 pm on a Saturday night and you flip on NBC. You just happen to tune in during the opening credits sequence of Saturday Night Live, which shows the cast members milling about in NYC while the announcer introduces them by name. These pre-shot sequences vary, but often show the comedians walking around Manhattan or hanging out at a bar. Other times they’ll be shot just stepping out of a cab, ready to enjoy a night on the town. At some point in the near future it is guaranteed they will no longer be exiting from a Ford Crown Victoria, but what you see above: a Nissan NV200.
This is the end of an era. Sure, various hybrids like the Escape and C-Max along with the Toyota Sienna and Highlander have been plying the streets of New York for several years now, but the demise of the Crown Victoria mirrors the decline of the sedan in an even broader sense.
The Toyota Camry, long a stalwart of the top ten best selling vehicles in the american market, is down over 4% from August 2014 to last month. Sales of the Fusion declined as well, and the Accord fell even more precipitously both in YTD numbers and from July to August 2015.
Picking up the slack are the current slate of crossovers. Explorer sales have shot up by double digits from 2014 and from July to August of this year. The Explorer is based on the D4 platform, a version of which underpins the Ford Taurus. Sadly, the LWB version of the Explorer, otherwise known as the Flex, is down over 33 percent. I fear it may not be long for this world.
The Edge, based on the CD4 platform shared with the Fusion, posted equally impressive numbers. These gains aren’t limited to just Dearborn, however. The Highlander and Pilot are picking up the slack from their trunk equipped brethren.
We’ve also essentially seen the rise of a new segment: the subcompact crossover. Along with vehicles in the next segment up, these provide a compelling reason to skip on a sedan: increased ride height, easier ingress/egress, improved options for carrying cargo, and the always sought after all wheel drive, which is less of a fuel economy penalty these days. None of this is good news for fans of sedans, as the lower price point of say, a Jeep Renegade might entice a buyer to pick it over a Chrysler 200 or even a cheaper Dart.
Now, I don’t think the sedan is actually going to die. Instead, we’ll see them become more of a niche market. Maybe it won’t be as dramatic as the decline of mainstream coupes, but I can certainly see some automakers dropping nameplates like the Legacy or the Passat if trends continue or accelerate. That of course depends on oil prices and the state of the economy. If gas prices spike and we enter another recession, you’ll see customers scramble for cheaper vehicles, although those may not necessarily be sedans, but cheap subcompact crossovers or compact hatchbacks.
That’s partially the reason why I decided to post that picture of the Ford Focus RS you see above. There have been blog posts from several popular websites about the demise of the sedan, and another recent post on a popular car mag’s web page admonishing the buying public for purchasing crossovers. I’m not going to link to the article in question mainly because it was a very poorly argued, mean spirited rant. Instead, I’ll posit why the state of the sedan would make someone angry.
It’s about masculinity. The demise of the sedan means a product like the Dodge Charger might not get a replacement. More importantly, it also threatens the development and proliferation of pony cars like the Mustang. If a performance minded Focus can keep up with a Mustang at the drag strip and the stoplight, while being able to be driven in the winter months, there is a compelling argument to pick the former at the expense of the latter. This doesn’t apply so much to GenXers as it does to the millennials, who primarily buy the hot hatches zipping around roadways near you. The decline of the pony car also has not occurred, with the Mustang selling very well since being redesigned.
That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. My best guess? Sedans will stick around in diminished numbers, largely because the adoption of modular platforms by all the major automakers ensures their survival, but they will become more decontented and packaged as value propositions. I think we’ll see manufacturers follow the Impreza model: a cheap, serviceable sedan that gets decent gas mileage, and this will extend to both the compact and midsize segments, along with optional all wheel drive. I think this shift will happen by 2030.
Feel free to state your opinion on the sedan, and let me know if you think the three box, trunk laden vehicles will fade away eventually, or not at all.
Interesting question. The three-box sedan is definitely fading, but it’s not really being replaced by something that isn’t a sedan. We’re simply going back to the 1915-1939 two-box sedan after a long period of post-1940 three-box sedans. Most SUVs are very close in proportions and dimensions to a 1933 sedan. They even have running boards.
That is precisely the way I see my 2007 CRV. Its a tall 2 box AWD car, that can haul a fair amount stuff or people as I see fit. It replaced a Camry.
The compact SUV/crossovers seem to be slowly morphing into minivans, both in use and in overall construction. I looked at a new CRV and noticed how the proportions seemed to scream minivan.
Just what I was going to say.
The longer-lower-wider mania of the fifties and sixties all but obliterated the practicality of a Thirties-style sedan. Initially buyers seeing more enclosed space moved to wagons, then vans, then minivans and SUVs, and now the mix we see on the roads today.
Over almost forty years of driving, I’ve owned one sedan and three hatchbacks. The hatches have been much more practical, whether carrying passengers and luggage or lumber and hay bales, and I’ve never considered a sedan again.
Just yesterday I had a ride in an AU Falcon (CC a few days ago), and was forcibly reminded of the poor passenger packaging of these cars – low seating position and awkward entry to the rear seat. It was comfortable once in there, and with the V8 it moved right along – but I was glad to get back into my Mazda 3 when the journey was over.
Yes indeed, the old two-box touring sedan configuration is what most of the crossovers are. The three-box sedan with integrated coupe-type trunk and passengers moved forward down off the rear axle-line happened in 1930’s, lead first by custom coachbuilt luxury cars, brought to the luxury mass market by the ’38 Cadillac 60 Special and finally the general mass market by the 1940 GM C-body Torpedo sedans available from Pontiac through Cadillac.
You nailed it!
Look at the proportions of a new Audi Q7 – what was a “true” – tall and masculine – SUV now became a sort of oversized and uber-heavy minivan. Same with the new Volvo XC90.
The sedan may not be the most popular vehicle anymore, but I don’t think it’s going away for a very long time. Other bodystyles that have mostly faded away (wagons, convertibles, minivans) never had the height of volume sedans currently have. We might all be flying around in space ship vehicles before sedans disappear.
I was going to say the same thing. While crossovers are in vogue right now, I doubt sedans will ever go completely extinct. At worst, they will still be offered in as many numbers as all the coupes, convertibles, and wagons combined.
Plenty of buyers (myself included) just don’t like SUVs/crossovers no matter what, so there will always be some space in the market to fill.
I tend to buy small cars — hate to spend big bucks on transportation, want good gas mileage. I get hatches whenever I can for the extra utility.I suppose, if it comes right down to it, that one day if it’s a choice between a small sedan or hatch, and a small crossover, as long as they all provide a satisfactory driving experience, that I’m buying whichever one is less expensive.
Now you have me thinking Ive owned close to 100 cars but for decades bought station wagons or Panelvans for travelling in OZ, since returning to Godzone Ive had 3 sedans 3 wagons and Two hatchbacks I still have one sedan though its 56 years old and find the hatch a far more useable bodystyle its easy to park swallows very large items with a bit of internal origami its almost a wagon, so for me sedans are a second choice anyway.
I think sedans will be around for a long time, for one large reason: Fleets. Our state’s motor pool is almost entirely comprised of sedans, and I doubt that will entirely change.
Plus, sport sedans are safe. We all know how well the Dodge Magnum went over….
Here in the UK and most of western Europe, if it hasn’t got a German or a Jaguar badge, then it its very very unlikely to be sedan (saloon). The smallest true sedans are Mondeos, Insignias, Passats, Peugeot 508. The former full size, popular brand saloons from Ford and Opel, for example, have gone, although the Mondeo is now a pretty big. There are no saloon versions of the Focus, Astra, 308, Alfa Giuiletta, Seat Leon, Skoda Octavia, Honda civic, Toyota Auris available. Hatch or wagon only . Even the Jetta sells in very small volumes. The Accord is going, as is the Toyota Avensis. Further east, the saloon is more popular.
The volume now goes into either a compact German premium brand (Audi A3 or A4 saloon, BMW 3 series, C Class, new XE) or a crossover, like a Discovery Sport, Q3, X1 etc. Lower down the scale, it is a Nissan Qashqai. Lower down still, the utterly unfathomable Nissan Juke – ugly, cramped and offering few, if any, advantages over a Focus.
So, to answer your question, not long, except at the very top of the market.
I don’t think they’ll disappear, they’re overshadowed now by a hot fad that is the CUV segment but all things diminish with time, just look at the ponycar segment. Whatever the Mustang is selling currently it still is merely a fraction of what it was at the peak in the 60s. Plus, as an aside, hot hatches have been able to beat Mustangs literally since the term hot hatch was coined, but Mustangs have many engines and you don’t buy a base V6 if you expect to win races.
The fact is people don’t change, values do, often. There’s no rationality to car buying choices, whether it be in the performance, green, practical or utility niches. Success of any is fueled very heavily on societal pressure to conform, whether the pressure is to be cool, stylish, rugged, practical, enlightened, or sanctimonious. Planning or predicting decades ahead of time, thinking that our current values will even be remotely relevant, is one of the biggest follies humans succumb to. There’s literally thousands of old literature, film and art that depict a future that we today look at as being utterly ludicrous and comically unrealistic, but it wasn’t then.
As to the decline in sedans today, well, CAFE isn’t going to be friendly to 3500-4000lb CUVs with massive frontal areas I don’t think. The small hatch is nothing new, and has on and off again gone from 2 box to 3 box and back again. Sedans themselves historically weren’t stylish bodystyles until the 90s, 2 door coupes were, and unlike the freedom 2 doors have to play with, with vastly different roofline shapes and such, sedans are kind of stuck in a certain mold due to the comfortable accommodation of rear passengers, lest you end up with a car that’s neither fish nor foul(4 door coupes). To elaborate, as so many years have passed with sedans uncomfortably being the “fashionable” bodystyle, it’s cracks are starting to show, and stylists, more and more, are trying to compensate with outlandish and ever more impractical styling cues and shapes – Bangled BMWs are the most obvious example of this, given BMW practically made the 4 door sedan cool, and all that clean timeless decades old design details got thrown out the window, with BMWs today looking more like something Pontiac would have released as a concept in the 2000s – High beltlines and gunslit windows across the board are other examples.
I think whatever exodus we’re seeing from sedans to CUVs right now are a result of that, simply because they’re an alternative, which ultimately can be credited to most segment declines. The advent of child seats sent people from 2 doors to 4, downsizing sent wagon shoppers to minivans and SUVs, and most appropriately overgrown/overstyled “standard” sized cars in the 60s drove people into compacts/intermediates.
I agree with all of this. The thing about fads is that they can shift and fade as rapidly as they appear. Pundits 30 years ago would probably be quite startled at how quickly the minivan went from mainstream comer to ho-hum niche.
I would add an important socioeconomic factor to the mix: I think the current fad for crossovers is a reflection of the aging of Gen X buyers, just as the boom in SUVs in the ’90s was a reflection of the aging Boomers. The children of the Baby Boomers aged out of coupes (particularly after child seat laws made the shortcomings apparent) and some Gen Xers are now old enough to have kids entering college, so boxier, more utilitarian vehicles are timely. It’s a reflection of an aging market.
At the same time, the millennials have been largely shut out of the new car market by the horrifying job market, low wages, and staggering student loan debt. (The few millennials who have the wherewithal to buy new cars aren’t necessarily representative of mainstream anything.) So, the younger end of the market, which is likely to have different automotive tastes insofar as they’ll ever have the opportunity to demonstrate them, is underrepresented. (Meanwhile the auto industry, which historically has almost always struggled in its attempts to appeal to The Youth, keeps moaning, “We don’t know what young buyers want,” despite the fact that the obvious answer is, “Something substantially cheaper than you’re offering that they can afford on poverty wages.”)
what a load of hot air
Both of you
The small 4door sedan with “mail slot” style trunk and fold down rear seat is the most popular thing there is at the moment…after pickup truck variations and SUV/CUVs that is.
completely agree with ate up with motor. i’ve been thinking that the most successful launch for the “youth” market would look like this:
a cheap simple two door hatchback with a small engine and a cvt transmission. it should have a minimum amount of extras aside from good phone connectivity. the ideal situation would be to source it from some other company’s obsolete tooling. the marketing should be internet based. eliminate traditional dealerships as much as the law will allow and let them buy it through the internet. the guarantee should be done through a national chain like goodyear or sears. if the price was low enough, it would sell like the proverbial “hotcakes.”
I don’t see the sedan going away any time soon.
I’m a societal pessimist. Ever since the 70s, for whatever reason, whoever or whatever shapes media opinion has been working on making cars uncool. the trend to these CUVs that resemble toddler play cars is part of that, I fear. the more kids that grow up seeing things like this, the more kids who will view cars as no more exciting than refrigerators will grow…and when they are told to ride around in self driving padded transportation modules, they won’t care.
Or they’ll resent them and outright reject them. Glass half full outlook I guess.
I kind of feel the same way, its very sad. The transportation pods are so blasé. I hate to see luxury CUVs because I think, who the hell would drive one of those bland things and pay extra for the emblem up front? No way, they will never be as classy as a big sedan.
I picked a big sedan (300c) recently and love it. I fully intend to drive big near luxury/luxury sedans, come hell or high water, until I’m old and they pry my license from my hand because I can’t drive safely any more.
+1
I think youre onto something. Back in the ’60s pretty much anyone with a decent paying job could afford a muscle car, or at least a lesser derivative of one. Now in todays dollars, the 3 that are available are aspirational. For younger buyers its like ‘enjoy your beigemobile, peasant.’
Of what three muscle cars do you speak? If you are talking Challenger, Mustang, and Camaro the “lesser derivatives” all start well under $30K MSRP, hardly “aspirational”. Considering anyone rarely has to pay MSRP and if you don’t care if its actually “new” you can take advantage of depreciation and buy one of the more muscle oriented version for new stripper prices.
When the muscle cars came around there was nothing quite like them, certainly no performance sedans of note. These days you can get a hot hatch for $20k (FiST) to $25k (FoST). With the utility of a hatch and four doors to boot.
These are the good old days….
They world certainly has changed, ten to fifteen years ago you’d buy an American car like a Mustang or Camaro/Firebird to have something different from the FWD, 4 banger, clapped out mommymobile looking import farting down the streets, and drown them all out with that unmatchable V8 roar, emanating from cars with two doors and a decklid. Maybe that’s a dinosaur outlook but that’s the point of choice isn’t it? Now there’s Ecoboost Mustangs, Fiestas and Focii singing the same tune, just like everyone else, and we’re all supposed to be grateful?
This is only anecdotal observation but I have two neighbors on each side of the street who have FoSTs, and neither even drive them in the winter, l bet many others do as well(I certainly don’t see that many). They are enthusiast cars afterall, and as many do they’re parked in the garages like so many do here in the midwest with their good cars. Practicality and utility pretty much go right out the window in those instances, just spreadsheet fodder.
I understand what you are saying. My point was regarding the “beigemobile” comment – a FiST, FoST, GTI and a host of others all could put a grin on your face and yet show up in the school pick up lane tomorrow. There are a bunch of modifications you can do (including fartcans) just like with the old cars. True, there is nothing like a Mustang V-8….but personally I prefer a DOHC over an OHV.
But why would you want a “hot hatch”? I know opinions are like a$$holes, but, lame. I mean, hell, a Sonata will blow the doors off many a “performance” car of yore but mere speed isn’t really the point. Its nice to get there fast, but you gotta look good doing it!
If Chrysler stretches the 300 a few feet and calls it an Imperial, these will truly be the good old days. Ditto if Dodge can shave off a few pounds from the Challenger.
Funny that this article should appear here on the same afternoon as the earlier piece on the Saab 9-5. As a (former, sadly) Saab loyalist I was disheartened to see both the 9-3 and 9-5 go from the older 5-door formats to typical sedans. While the wagon versions of both cars were fine, one of the reasons I felt as compelled to keep buying 900’s and 9000’s (prior to the full-on GMification of the brand) was the great utility of the three and five door platform.
The proliferation of sedans, even in vehicle classes (like sub-compacts) where hatchbacks were once king seems to have risen in the 90’s. As buyers started looking for a more upscale image even in cheaper cars, coupled with folks likely getting tired of older, rattley hatchbacks and the penalty box image of some economy cars of the 70’s and 80’s, the genre fell into near oblivion.
Now that millenials are a target market the hatchback and pseudo-wagon seems to rule the roads again. Could just be that younger buyers have no negative frame of reference to view wagons and hatches, so they’re back with a vengeance. In 20 years I wonder if we’ll see a resurgence of sedans and coupes again. It’s all about fashion, after all. Utility is secondary in marketing, despite all of the perceived advantages of any given platform.
At the very least, the secondgen 9-5 should’ve been wagon first (so the loyalists don’t hold off, and to launch in a less competitive segment) with a sedan to follow.
In some markets, car manufacturers have already “pulled the plug” on sedans. In the U.K. Nissan and Subaru (if I’ve read correctly) no longer market sedans. Considering how well they (don’t) sell, I wouldn’t be surprised if Toyota followed those brands.
Mercedes, BMW, and Jaguar, used to be synonymous with sedans, but now that all 3 brands have STRONGLY embraced CUVs their sedan models (except for the top price levels) will soon disappear.
Ironically, I think car manufacturers that insist on furnishing small car buyers with a choice of sedan and hatchback are idiots. The Yaris sedan? The Versa sedan?
The huge China market still favors sedans. Europe has been hatch-centric for decades now. North America is a mixed bag. So, no, not for at least another generation. These markets are why the Yaris, Versa, and even Fiesta are still offered with a trunk. The VW Jetta is a Golf with a trunk also, and commands a premium on this side of the Atlantic.
The taxi and limo industry is a very small niche, just very visible in big cities. Ive ridden in Escape cabs and the NV200 looks even less comfortable. Here on the Left Coast, gasoline-powered Crown Vics have already been outlawed, and very few CNG versions were ever built, so, the Prius has become the de-facto cab of choice. That, and the Hybrid Camry are actually just as comfortable in back as the CV was. At LAX there are nothing but full-size GM SUV limos (‘burban/Tahoe/Yukon/Esalade).
I don’t see luxury/near-luxury sedans disappearing. They may get crowded out, at least for a while, by CUV platform-mates, but I can’t see BMW, Jaguar, or Mercedes offering an all two-box lineup.
The sedan is dying, just like the wagon has died. I, for one, welcome our crossover masters. (Actually, I don’t at all, but carmakers don’t give a damn about me as I don’t buy new. As they well shouldn’t.)
Basically the market is converging on utility on a massive scale. As those who choose based on things like style, power, luxury, and brand appeal are pushed out by a younger generation who choose based on economy, utility, and reliability, there is no room for the sedan. It’s an inherently impractical design compared to a hatchback version of the same car. Unless you really, really need the security of a trunk (and actually back it up by locking your internal release mechanism) there is no reason to buy a sedan over a hatchback other than the fact that for a long time in this country the sedan was considered more “stylish”. Style has had its day, and it’s pretty much over. The only thing left is for companies to turn back the clock to the 80’s and offer hatch versions of their midsizers. And I think they will, or those cars will be relegated to irrelevant footnotes. (Real, practical hatchbacks, not odd category-straddlers like the Accord Crosstour.) Cars are appliances today, after all, and the sedan is a poor appliance compared to a hatchback.
Or maybe it’s not just the sedan that’s dead, but the idea of any car smaller than a compact anyway. If you need something bigger than a Focus, Corolla, etc, perhaps what you really need is either an MPV or a CUV. I mean the appeal is there–they can carry *much* more. They’re easier to get into and out of. As long as you get one with a standard ride height that doesn’t pretend to be an off-roader, they’re probably safer in a crash (this is particular to the USA where you have a decent chance of colliding with something else tall, like a pickup truck).
This all doesn’t apply to the luxury brands, yet, but they’re a different animal. Mainstream cars as a stylistic statement– for the average man or woman– are dying. Utility is king. The sedan doesn’t fit in this framework. Much like the coupe and the wagon, it has outlived its usefulness.
The wagon didn’t die. Crossovers ARE wagons.
Interesting question that has been in my mind as well.
If not for CAFE, the sedan would truly be dead – probably a long time ago. It is difficult to make a tall vehicle with a lot of frontal area run at peak fuel efficiency, so sedans hang around mostly as economy vehicles designed to run up CAFE numbers. I count Accord, Camry and Fusion as economy vehicles, ever price one against a Pilot, Highlander or Explorer?
When sedans were spacious, useful, versatile vehicles, they were plenty popular in the U.S.. When that kind of sedan was mostly dead in the later 1980’s, the minivan served as a stopgap, followed by SUVs, CUVs and trucks.
Now that the CAFE bogeyman is chasing all vehicle categories, we may all end up driving people pods that look like Honda Fits. Not terrible, but it may be a very dull automotive landscape.
At a family gathering the other day, I thought it interesting that the only sedan in a sea of SUVs / CUVs and trucks was a lone nearly new Accord sedan, driven by a very small 82 year old widow that needs a little something to get her to the doctor and grocery store.
What you have to do it get the remote and turn the channel faster and you can avoid the opening credits along with the rest of SNL.
Haha +1
Better question might be how long does SNL have left?
It’s not going away, people are just gravitating to what works – tall cars without trunks.
I’m pretty sure the good Lord drives a Model A “sedan” as he and Edsel Ford intended. Current automakers are just giving more room and access behind the back seat. Other than the funky front end, I think Edsel would approve of the C Max.
I agree. As long as there are people who need and/or want a sedan, it’s here to stay. It’s the same with the Station Wagon. It has never really gone away.
Call me old-school, but I like the Crown Vic. I also like the 1990s Chevy Caprice Classic. While I like the Nissan NV van, I never could get interested in the NV200. I would much prefer the NV2500 and NV3500 van. I don’t see the sedan ever going away. Someone has a need for such vehicle. Someone has a want for such vehicle.
Compacts with trunks will stick around, mid size cars will merge with big cars. In other words there is still a market for ‘real cars’
I think all the stories about ‘sedans dying’ is media hype, and to get ‘fashion slaves’ to buy more profitable “trucks”. The auto makers get more profits from “Utes”, so they are promoting the idea that “if you get a car, you are out of style”, so get a more expensive and profitable “truck”.
Sedans wont be going away. But in the taxi world the crown vic’s will be probably replaced by the now full size ford Taurus sedan. Heck that’s what police departments are doing now when auctioning of there crown Victoria aging fleet. I wonder if any other vehicle besides that crown Vic would be just as durable as that old rwd panther platform.
If they start using Taurus as taxi cabs, I would wait for another different model. The backseat is pathetically small on those models and cops have to stuff the suspects in ( really trying hard to stuff, with protection guards ) and some cities remove the factory seats and use some smaller ones to let people just get in. Prius cabs are surprisingly small also, even though volume wise it’s classified as a mid-size, it is only as big as a smaller compact inside ( if compare to Focus ) and those cars should be all outlawed for taxi use, regarding the basic comfort of passengers. ( in the ’80s, Dodge Diplomat was even not allowed as taxi in certain big cities for not being big enough inside. It would be such a roomy taxi by compare now ) No wonder many taxi cab companies either use larger sedans ( W-Body Impala ) or just switch to SUVs, MPVs.
There’s no way the Taurus will be a taxi. Even police departments are choosing the Explorer over the Taurus.
Isn’t the explorer on the same chassis tho as the taurus?
Yes, and the CHP is currently buying the Exploder, not the Taurus. since most California police departments buy whatever the CHP does, that extends to the whole state.
Environmental laws here force taxi companies to buy hybrids or alternative fuel vehicles, except for handicapped accessible vans, so no Taurus taxis either.
Yes, and most police buy the Explorer over the Taurus because they can actually get into it. In an emergency situation, you don’t want to take an extra 2 seconds to duck out of your car.
The police Taurus seemed to come and go seemingly overnight round these parts, now I see nothing but Explorers and the occasional old Vic.
For police cars, in my area (central Massachusetts) I still see far more Crown Vics than anything else. Of those police vehicles from the “post-Crown Vic generation”, Explorers are the most popular. There are also some Tauruses, some Chargers, and some GM SUVs, but they are much less common.
Virginia State Police have a ton of Taurus Interceptors, so I see them all the time up here. Some Chargers too, but the Taurus is way more common. Richmond City and Henrico County seem to be buying them too. All three were Crown Vic fleets previously (the Vics still make up most of the Richmond City fleet) so maybe it’s just a matter of who they had supplier connections with.
I haven’t seen a single Caprice PPV anywhere in Virginia that I can recall. I was in North Carolina on Saturday and saw a handful though. NCHP isn’t using them (they’re all Chargers as far as I know, with maybe a few Crown Vics still left) but a lot of the local research triangle-area agencies seem to have some.
Another interesting fact to add to this argument is this: That most CUVs (unbeknownst to most owners I’m sure) are technically considered light trucks. This is very interesting to me, and I’m not sure why. I think the Chrysler PT Cruiser is more of a game changer than we realize since it was specifically designed (bumper height, availability of privacy glass, etc) to be a light truck, while looking and feeling like a Neon in just about EVERY other metric. So the real question isn’t just about sedans, but the very idea of the “passenger car” itself. How long before that becomes a niche product. It does have the strictest safety and emissions standards after all, and unlike the old days, the only passenger cars I can think of that seat more than 5 are the Mercedes E-class wagon and the Tesla Model S
Yup, sedans have a place….but a declining place. I speak from experience….we owned many a car over the years…this last fuel spike and realization we don’t really need a Ford sedan and a grand caravan…..we sold both off for a brand new Kia Soul and a hot little red Kia Rio Hatch. Kids moved out, just me the wife and our dog, Daisy. She loves riding in the back hatch portion, wife loves the new technology in the cars, and I love the 6 speed fuel efficiency….and the heated seats!
Manufacturers only make what customers buy. It’s always been this way. Mind you, the social value is probably less today then it has been in the past; people don’t value the car as a status symbol anymore, at least not the everyday car. So why put effort into style and substance, when utility and a brand will do? Not my sentiment, but it’s a good theory on the modern market.
As for youth, there are still fans of the car among teens and young adults (such as myself), but that number is dwindling. I can see how poor job market/wages/economy will push youth out of the market, but alot of youth aren’t even trying to get in. Social ideologies among youth do not favor the automobile; they simply don’t care for driving. I know a few who think that way. Maybe it’s because of environmental concerns, maybe money, maybe they’re simply disinterested in cars, I don’t know.
Even among middle-age adults there is disinterest in driving. It’s just a chore, has to be done to get places. May as well get the most utilitarian vehicle around.
Wow, real downer I just wrote here.
My thoughts, the rise of the automobile was always on the back of something practical, Tin Lizzy, Beetle, etc. And I get the CUV; not a big fan myself, but I get it. As far as I’m concerned, as long as a vehicle, ANY vehicle, is interesting and worth my time, I’m game.
And the sedan won’t go, it’s the bread and butter option of cars.
All these articles on “The Decline of the Sedan” in the past couple of months annoy me, partially because I prefer sedans over any other body style (aesthetically speaking), and partially because it’s overblown and doesn’t really make sense when you look at sales figures and the general automotive landscape. It’s mostly speculation, and it’s not based on much hard fact besides some slight ups and downs in certain segments that could be explained by other factors that change very often and unpredictably (fads, economy, gas prices, etc). The coupe had its day, and it ended. The wagon did too. Then the minivan, then the BOF SUV, and now the crossover is having its 15 minutes. What was the bodystyle that persevered through all the decades, still quietly selling in high volume, through all of these trends? The good old 4 door with a trunk.
Yes, crossovers are becoming more popular, but I think a lot of their volume is mostly replacing traditional SUV and minivan sales, which are both declining. Sedans still make up some of the largest volume in the car market (if a vehicle is not a pick-up truck or a crossover in the US, it is most likely a sedan). It is still the default bodystyle anyone, of any age, thinks of when the hear the word “car”. This bodystyle will never die out completely in the same way wagons and coupes did (even they still exist, technically, in small numbers), and if the sedan segment does decline like some of these articles are claiming, it will take a very long time and be very very gradual. But, my opinion on this is no more valid than anyone else’s because this is all long term speculation.
I just came back from NY, and I was surprised how few Nissan cabs were on the streets. Most were hybrid Camrys or some other sort of Ford or Toyota hybrid. There were more Crown Vics than Nissans.
Anyway, I’m very cynical about the shifting market. It’s as though the vast majority of vehicles will be charcoal gray SUV/crossovers or supersized P/Us. Individual choice is out; variety will be forbidden.
You realize the variety of makes and models on the market is about as big as it’s ever been, right?
I’ve held the belief that older cars which had a two box design (wagons, SUVs, cuvs and hatchbacks) were typically run longer and maintained better than their sedan breathern. I see it when you compare used prices on cars that have both sedan and wagon variants (such as imprezas). I can tell you from personal experience that one of the main reason we keep our old Subaru around is because it can’t be beat when I need to pick up some lumber at the hardware store. I think practical, efficient two box designs are the wave of the future. Once gas prices start climbing again this love affair with trucks will come to a crashing end and most people will look for a balance of people moving capability and light hauling cabability In an efficient package. That’s a two box design, plain and simple.
Chris M: “Unless you really really need the security of a trunk”…. Unless you really really need the cargo capability of a CUV [even though you never use it ]…. “there’s really no good reason to buy one.” How about you buy what you want. I don’t want the noise and rattles and exposed cargo area. There’s no good reason for me to consider a hatch or CUV.
I have an 05 ION sedan. There’s been one time in the past ten years that I have possibly needed a hatch or CUV: when I moved from LA to AZ. And even then I had everything loaded into it that I was going to take.
Everyone’s seen the SUVs and huge trucks running around completely empty and carrying one passenger. Fine if one wants to do that but don’t tell others what they should be driving just because that driver has convinced themselves they “need” the space.
Sedans are also quieter with less open area to transmit road noise and tailgate rattles.
They will always have their place. They were never about about style. They were more practical than two doors of the same line. Less cumbersome than a wagon.
Once the 2 door market dried up, manufacturers found you could sell equally sporty four door sedans. Wheels, spoilers, etc dressed them up but they were still ordinary sedans.
Our own use case has been such that we’ve only purchased one sedan over the years, a Chevy Spectrum, which we sold after one year (was falling apart). I briefly owned my paternal grandmother’s ’77 Nova, and my maternal grandmother’s ’86 Grand Marquis. Neither appealed to us as long-term vehicles.
At one point, I had the VW Type II (mini van, if you will), and my wife drove the Honda Civic hatch. The Honda was succeeded by a Third-gen Caravan, and I got the Honda. Wife has driven minivans ever since and wants nothing to do with anything smaller or more sedan-like (she frequently has it full, so she’s not hauling around dead air 95% of the time). I’ve basically stuck with compact hatches, if you count my New Beetle as one.
I have the F-250 for heavy farm hauling.
So, sedans really don’t fit our use case. YMMV, of course.
I wouldn’t miss the sedan if it were to vanish. Ive always felt it was the stupidest bodystyle on the road. I mean, where exactly does it excel? Its really just for someone who doesn’t like cars anyway (unfortunately the majority) so tolerable mediocrity is all it has to offer. Think about it:
A wagon, or hatch has 4 door access, but a bigger more flexible cargo area. The simpler silhouette looks sportier (usually) and the aerodynamics tend to be slippery.
A coupe is more for style, but functionally its the sturdiest possible design. So it lends itself to enthusiast applications.
Convertibles are all about styling and profiling. Its an indulgence more than a need, so functionally theyre kind of worthless but its all about the fun factor.
Sedans don’t tend to look great with their bland, clunky styling (that’s subjective of course), they aren’t fun, they aren’t particularly practical and theyre a lousy platform for a performance car. Sooo……Why do they make these things again?
Now all that said, sedans tend to make more sense in the ‘classical’ interpretation. The Chrysler 300 is about the only one that wears its boxiness proudly. The current crop of jellybeans with their feeble attempt to mimic coupes actually makes older sedans with their straight and sober styling seem honest and refreshing looking back. Classy luxury cars aren’t my ‘thing’. Neither are 3 piece suits and for the same reason. But I get why they appeal to some people and they have their place.
I really don’t understand how a hatch is more practical than a sedan.
If I need to carry people for the most part (but no more than 4 persons), and a very modest amount of cargo from time to time – quite naturally I buy a sedan.
A coupe would do, but I like to have a separate access to the backseat, just in case. Also coupes tend to be rarer and more expensive than sedans because *someone* has told the car builders that a coupe is “sporty” and “for the enthusiasts” = the people you can get some extra bucks from.
And if I need to carry a somewhat larger amount of cargo – here comes the liftback (think “Skoda”): looks like a sedan, but has a real hatch. That’s a 100% win for me.
On the other hand, if i need to carry both people *and* light cargo on a regular basis – there are the station wagons.
IMO hatchbacks just don’t have a purpose because they attempt to be both things at a time, which works quite rarely. With the rear seat unfolded, the trunk is smaller than in a sedan (usually *much* smaller). With the rear seat folded, the cargo area is still smaller than in a wagon, but exposed nonetheless, and you still get all the noises and rattles of a wagon in both configurations.
Mid-Gen X, when I last bought a new car I considered only hatchbacks and plan to do so going forward. No excess height/frontal area, no downside; the hatch has (usually) better styling, more useful cargo space (often more overall), and at current shell stiffness and NVH standards the sedan isn’t really lighter or quieter enough to make it worth living with the tacked-on butt you can’t do anything with. Crossovers are another matter; in bigger cars you can’t get a real wagon unless you go high-end Euro but I wonder what the point of spending $3000 on a Honda HR-V over a Honda Fit is.
I can remember moving several times with a Dodge Omni hatchback, and years later having to carry a window air conditioner home from the store on the front passenger seat of a Toyota Tercel two-door sedan after it wouldn’t fit through the trunk opening which wasn’t particularly small or awkward for what it was, it just wasn’t enough.
Solid mid Gen Xer here. I’ve had pickups, coupes and sedans for my primary vehicles since age 16….Honda, BMW, Buick, Pontiac, Chevrolet, Ram, Jaguar, lots of used Mercedes and a couple new ones, I’m an equal opportunity buyer. I have a 2014 Jeep GC Limited now and it’s my favorite ever. My last two cars were an E350 and S550 and while they had clear advantages/superior qualities, overall I’m the happiest I’ve ever been. I can tow my boat, go skiing or tend to my family acreage or rental houses with the 4WD, put ladders on the roof rack or get a trailer full of free mulch at the county landfill without obsessing over a ding or scratch, not be embarrassed pulling up to the country club or valet parking, room for my family of 5 or clients/coworkers, room to take my first kid off to college next year, quiet & smooth ride (I don’t have the 20 inch rims), dirt cheap maintenance requirements (oil changes and just bought a set of tires, that’s all so far), and I average 24 mpg in mixed city/highway driving. I get 30 on a long interstate trip, easily, with the GAS V6. Yes, that much better than the EPA ratings. And 0% for 36 months. After 22 months and 50,000 miles not a single problem or repair. This type of comfort, room, flexibility and economy of operation is what I want right now, and apparently most other Americans do too! It’s not just a Jeep GC, all these CUV’s or SUV’s or whatever you want to call them just do a lot of things and do them all well. My E350 and S550 excelled at certain areas (my two teens drive them now, fine cars) but what the Jeep does less well it makes up for by doing about anything they cannot. I can’t imagine going back to just a sedan now.
Well, a sedan makes an extremely impractical taxicab to begin with… you know – low door openings, awkward entering and exiting, low ride height, small trunk, lack of versatility… using a typical 1960s – 1990s sedan in this role was just a compromise, and a pretty poor one at that. Modern sedans are higher and thus more acceptable, but still cramped and un-versatile. Large american sedans mitigated these drawbacks to some extent, but the low MPG is no longer tolerable.
The cabbies have been complaining about all of these things since 1960s, but they had to shut up because sedans of different sizes were essentially all what car builders could offer. Now they’ve got a lot more choice, and their choice is clearly not a sedan.
There is the Checker, of course – THE taxicab, but was it really what we call a sedan today, or rather more like the today CUVs in terms of overall package, ride hight, road clearance, etc… ? Just like most 1940s and early 1950s sedans, that is – those built before that “low-long-sleek” mantra became ubiquitous and the cabbies just had to make do with whatever was available.
As a private car, on the other hand, a sedan makes much more sense, especially for long highway trips. In the 1970s, there was a prediction that in the future there will be highly specialized “highway cars” – low, long, sleek, with powerful engines and good aerodynamics – banned fro the inner parts of large cities – and “city cars”, high, modestly powered, relatively slow, but very fuel efficient – banned for highways use.
The TX4 is the ideal taxi and probably the ideal sedan for Americans as well, not considering price.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TX4
TX4 is too small for this market.
THIS is what America needs. Go to Chicago or Hartford and you will see them in action.
http://www.mv-1.us/mv-1-commercial-vehicles
Well gee that looks like something checker taxi would make if they were still around, but god it looks ugly and bloated.
The MV-1 was a huge bust as a taxi in New York. No one wanted them, too big, too thirsty, too expensive. The TX4 is way bigger on the inside than a Crown Victoria, as is the Nissan NV200 taxi.
exactly. never going to make it as a new york taxicab. the mv-1 has found a niche in new york as the vehicle for transporting the wheelchair bound.
the nv200 is the new york taxicab because bloomberg shoved it down our throats. mayor deblasio was against it, as were most new yorkers but the courts have ruled that we’re stuck with it until 2023!
the hybrid camry seems the most popular with cabbies. the car sevice fleets (black cars) are gravitating towards the avalon.
The TX4 is a fine, traditional cab – because, of course, in London our taxis stuck to their pre-war two-box profile, with a clear lineal descent (in terms of styling and interiors) from the 1930s Austins and Morrises to today’s TX series. We have never had three box saloons as licensed taxis in the capital.
But… the TX may be on borrowed time. Aside from some pretty serious financial problems that led to the manufacturer being sold to the Chinese, and aside from Uber (a whole other challenge), Mercedes-Benz has muscled into the market, with a minivan that meets the Public Carriage Office’s strict criteria. Many drivers prefer them; many passengers prefer them. So, as the world returns to two-box, is the London taxi about to go one-box?
I’m 41 and always saw the sedan as a family car. However, my family has just exceeded my ’15’s seating by one. I believe there was one model left into the 2014 model year of the Impala that had a bench seat in front, correct me if I was wrong. Now when we go out we take our aging F150 since it seats six.
Current production sedans make for really ugly funeral coaches too…it won’t be long before everyone bows to the inevitable and starts using SUV or van-based hearses. This Accubuilt coach looks like a doorstop.
The Lincoln MKT was practically designed for hearse conversion.
Then again is it even in production anymore, considering how badly it flopped in the consumer market?
The MKT makes an enormous hearse, and a HORRIBLE limousine. There is one limo converter that grafts a short bustle-back trunk on the back of MKT based limos to give a little of a sedan look to the poor, misshapen thing.
Sedans will never disappear. When the current SUV,CUV market dries up, manufacturers will be producing them again and people will be buying them again.Like the Western movie, they are not really dead, they are just playing `possum.
Why would the SUV/CUV market dry up?
Everything runs its course, I guess.
Yep, I suppose one day everyone’s gonna wake up and say, “y’know, I like banging my head every time I get into my sedan, which is so low I can’t see around traffic.”
Hatchbacks are more practical ONLY if you have no one in the back seat.
From experience, if you have regular backseat passengers, like I do with two baby seats and thus no folding, then the cargo area of most hatches and small SUVs is smaller than the equivalent trunk.
Indeed, I’m not going to be stacking cargo vertically to the ceiling just to crush my kids sitting back there.
When you combine this fact, with noise and slight reduction in stiffness, hatchbacks just aren’t as practical as all the hype. This fact is no doubt a big contributor to the small wagon market (a la Jetta wagon) when you can carry cargo AND 3-5 passengers.
It’s also helpful and practical to have the option to keep your cargo stored in a completely separate compartment, for both safety and security reasons, and in real life daily living, most stuff will fit in a decent sized trunk.
All these shapes have their uses and place, just like tools for the right job. I’ll agree that the sedan shape is fading, but I’ll also agree with those who say they will stick around for a bit too…
The DS5 (formerly known as the Citroën DS5) is the only D-segment hatchback right now. In that segment even Renault switched from hatchback (the Laguna) to sedan (the Talisman).
D-, E- and F-segment cars will be available as sedans for a very long time to come. A Mercedes E-Class is a sedan, coupe or wagon. And the S-Class is either a sedan or a coupe. I can’t even imagine them as anything else.
If sedans were still built in the classic 3 box shape, with flat roofs that provided plenty of rear headroom, large evenly shaped doors with large windows for easy entrance/exit/vision, along with large, deep trunks with a big opening area for large items, they would still be useful. But the blob shape steals headroom, trunk space and shrinks opening area making them cramped and space wasting. In other words, the current styling trends have rendered them much less useful then they once were. Throw in airbag laws that keep children out of the front seat and space robbing child/booster seats requirements, and it’s not possible to have a useful 4 door sedan for families anymore. I like the idea of a roomy compartment away from prying eyes and containing heavy items in the event of a collision, not to mention the extra crush space to protect the rear seat passengers. And the better fuel mileage and lower center of gravity not relying on electronics to overcome inherent stability short comings. It’s easy enough to rent a truck (or have a small, lightweight utility trailer) for the few times you need to carry items that won’t fit in a sedan.
We really don’t know, do we? It may all boil down to ride height. If it does, crossovers may become the norm. If the sedan keeps on truckin’, so to speak, maybe it gets a higher stance; people like the view from up there. The tires could get narrow again, if technology makes the contact patch area less important. That’s already happening with ultra high efficiency prototypes. If implied security of locking articles out of sight matters, maybe metal cargo covers designed to work like roll top desks that disappear into the rear seatback might make an appearance, inside two box vehicles that have side windows, so you essentially have a sedan inside a wagon. The real endangered body style might be the coupe or two door sedan. Nobody likes sitting in back without access to a door, and small hatchbacks with four doors and hot powertrains seem to be where it’s at, not sacrificing sexiness for utility… because they don’t need to.
It’s pretty simple, really. Just offer the sedan model also as a wagon and as a wagon with a higher stance. Like Peugeot does with their 508. Below the 508 RXH, the jacked-up 508 wagon.
Regarding wagons. Maybe they’re dead in the US, but I see more wagons (from a Renault Clio to an Audi A6) on the road right now than ever before.
I envy Europe, because they are pretty much dead in the US. The only companies offering proper wagons right now are VW, Volvo, Mercedes, and Audi. Somewhat ironically, consdering how much the wagon was once part of “Americana”, there is no American carmaker offering a wagon at the moment, and the last time two or more were offered simultaneously was 2004 (Magnum, Taurus, Focus). I don’t consider the HHR a wagon, but if you want to be obtuse, then the last time would be 2011 (HHR, CTS).
Do as Renault does. Offer your B-segment car, the Clio in this case, as a hatchback, a wagon (below) and as a CUV (called the Captur).
At least these automakers offer you a choice.
Renault used to do a saloon Clio in eastern Europe. Is that still around on the current generation?
I don’t think so. But I did find this Renault Symbol, based on the Dacia Logan. It was introduced 3 years ago.
The other side. IMO it looks better than the Ford Fiesta sedan clown car.
Subaru has used that approach for years. I think it was possible to buy an Outback sedan, though you never see them. The Legacy version with lower ride height was what sedan owners preferred. I have an ’07 Legacy Outback wagon and I like its car-ishness vs the newer, improved models. It’s just a wagon, jacked up a bit for better ground clearance, which is all I really need to face the newer, improved snowy winters in the Northeast US.
It’s a shame they abandoned it. There is still a Legacy sedan, but the Outback was completely differentiated away from it about 5 years ago, and is now more of a CUV than a wagon. The “higher ground clearance” wagon market now is served by the Audi Allroad, and the Volvo XC70, though that one can’t be long for the world as it’s by far the oldest vehicle in their lineup (the V70 having been replaced several years ago).
I quite liked the Legacy GT wagon of the mid/late 00’s, but that generation was the last to offer a legitimate wagon.
I was interested to see that Subaru finally gave in to the inevitable and simplified its product line so that all of their Legacy-platform wagons are now simply Outbacks, and all sedans Legacys. You can’t get a “plain” Legacy wagon anymore in the US, although the Outback is not as aggressively outdoorsy-looking as it was in previous years. The Impreza platform is also now divided such that the Outback-ized Impreza wagon-crossover is the XV Crosstrek and the non-Outback version is the Impreza Sport, with the sedans being the WRX/STi and basic Impreza. I’d have been interested in a WRX five-door/wagon, but they are no more.
I doubt sedans will ever disappear altogether. Too many folks don’t like the look of SUV’s/CUV’s or the size of them. And there is something about driving a nice luxury/sport sedan that makes you feel in control. Plus many people prefer to sit lower to the ground. Every vehicle has its good and bad points, but a sedan will never become obsolete as too many people still like them.
I had to think about how many of the multiple cars my wife and I have owned (being just a two-person household) have been sedans…the answer is two out of ten, with the rest being four wagons (if you count a MINI Clubman as a quasi-wagon), one hatchback, a coupe, a roadster and a crossover (newest vehicle). I do *like* sedans, but having no kids to transport, but dogs and occasional loads of cargo, we’ve gravitated toward more versatile vehicles. I can make a wagon presentable for carrying passengers, or drop the back seat and shove a decent-sized piece of furniture in there. I don’t know that the sedan is done in the sense that personal-luxury coupes are, but without the economic and regulatory viability of huge trunks and huge passenger compartments, I think they’re off the list of a lot of buyers my age–but small sedans are still filling a niche for younger buyers who don’t have the same concerns (spend a day in LA and observe the hordes of BMW 3-series sedans, for example).
All that said, when we want to take a multi-day road trip and the weather’s nice, we shoehorn everything in the roadster anyway. 🙂
We do not own a sedan at present. In fact, other than the Mrs. and her new 88 Accord (before we met) neither of us has ever bought a new sedan. Every one I have picked out has been the former prized possession of someone about 25 years older than me.
In today’s world, flexibility is big. The sedan may become the niche for empty nesters who need nothing other than to run errands and take on an occasional trip.
Saloons (or sedans as you call them) still remain popular in the UK; here in Wigan, the most popular saloons are the:
Honda Accord (but that was recently axed here in the UK, but you can still get them to special order via dealers)
Infiniti Q (wasn’t that the G-Series or something?)
Volvo S60 (Liked a fair bit here in Wigan, mostly though, I see either 2003 or 2010-plated cars, and they’re often the T5 sedan or a diesel.)
Chrysler 300C (axed here in the UK, and buyers actually miss this, but AFAIK, the diesel was considered to be uneconomical, and we had no equivalent of your U.S. V8 models.. But some people are importing them from the U.S. to the UK, and it remains popular.)
Toyota Corolla (i still see 1993 and even 1987 models on the roads, and even a 2015 model. OK, so you can’t officially get the Corolla saloon in the UK, but some of us Brits have taken to importing it from Europe…)
Peugeot 508 (I suppose it would sell in the U.S. nowadays, if PSA gave it a chance.)
BMW 3-Series/5-Series (need I explain anymore…)
and surprisingly…
Proton Persona (although, tbh, it’s what some of you would call “fugly”. Look up 2015 Proton Persona on Google. Seems to be popular because one of The Only Way Is Essex cast members owning one, IIRC!)
Saloons are popular, just it depends what ones they are.
I am 26, but I would never consider anything other than a sedan, they are all I have ever lusted after and bought.I love the balanced look of four doors over anything else. I drive a Crown Vic btw, and have also had two 87′ Fifth Avenue’s, a Grand Marquis, and a W124 300E. There are few things that disgust me more than crossovers. In fact, if I was to expel my thoughts on how much I truly hate the hideous things, I’m sure Paul would ban me. And besides being hideous, they are completely useless – all they are is lifted unibody cars. My BOF Crown Vic is much more heavy duty, and can actually tow! Yeah, modern consumers are dumb enough to buy crossovers, but if they don’t build ’em, they can’t buy ’em!
My Baby….
I look upon crossovers very favorably because of what they were actually intended to be: not less-efficient replacements for sedans, but more-efficient replacements for the BOF SUVs of the 90s. People don’t want sedans because they’re more difficult for aging bodies to get into, and the back seats have no headroom. They’re not completely useless, and modern consumers are not dumb.