A few evenings ago, my wife and I journeyed to Denver to participate in an introduction event for the new 2018 Nissan Leaf, the second generation of Nissan’s electric car. Held at Denver University’s Cable Center, upon arrival we felt more than a little conspicuous in the parking area as we parked our huge gas guzzler SUV among a sea of first-generation Nissan Leafs; clearly our compatriots were mostly current owners.
We had been invited as I had signed up on Nissan’s website to be kept informed about the new Leaf a couple of months ago and this evening was billed as an evening to learn a bit more about it as well as enjoy a gourmet meal and live entertainment. So, to re-cap, our choices were A) Stay home with the kids as usual or B) Drive an hour for this evening of hijinks and good fun. Now, I love my kids as much as the next guy but a free meal and a new car to check out? Let’s go!
In any case, upon entry there was what was obviously a new Leaf hidden under a large sheet, a large hall with many tables and chairs, a stage, and two bars. After partaking in the complimentary offerings at the bar as well as a delightful variety of hors d’oeuvres being continuously offered by a platoon of roving serving staff and roaming amongst the crowd and display boards, we made our way to a table amongst many and found two seats.
So far it really felt more like a wedding from back in our dot-com era days in San Francisco than a new car introduction. The Quail Egg over Steak Tartare on some kind of Crostini was perhaps a tad rich though the Chicken Pate was delightful, but maybe not quite as delightful as the barely seared Yellowfin Tuna washed down with a fragrant white wine that just tickled the throat…People, this is all figured in to the sticker price somehow!
Our seats were near the front, I very uncouthly crossed my silverware to hold them while I refilled my drink (2nd table from right).
After a short while the tables filled up and a Nissan BigWig got on stage to thank us all for attending the event. After showing us a short video that was a mashup between footage of the Tokyo introduction event and a slightly over the top Tron-style animation he spoke for a while about the first generation Leaf having been a huge success and their hopes that the second generation would do even better since they listened to the owner body and gave us what was asked for…
Then, without any further ado, he told us we had about half an hour to check out the new car and ask any questions we wanted before dinner would start being served and all the time we wanted after and directed his assistant to whip the sheet off the car. Cue a big round of applause and the horde of True Believers stampeded toward the car with us in tow.
I’ve genuinely been interested in the Leaf and other electric cars for a while now. One of my former neighbors got a Tesla Model S a couple of years ago and let me drive it and I was very impressed with the performance. I’ll however not be spending that kind of money anytime soon so have been interested in the more proletariat offerings, the Leaf amongst them.
Used, they seem to be a fantastic bargain but having looked at a few, they clearly are somewhat basic and built to a budget. If gas powered instead of electric nobody would ever buy one. OK, maybe they would but I don’t think Nissan would even offer it.
The new Leaf is certainly a big improvement. First, the range. With a new 40kWh battery it apparently will provide a 150 mile range. While nowhere near the Chevy Bolt’s 238 mile range for example, this is still clearly a huge improvement over the first generation which started with an 84 mile range and currently offers a 104 mile range. The next most competitive offerings are the 2017 VW e-Golf at 125 miles and the 2017 Hyundai Ioniq EV at 124 miles (both not offered everywhere as of yet).
We all know that there is no way my particular family would own just one car and I’ve been informally tracking my driving per day for a bit more than a year and have realized that there has not been a single day where both my wife and I each independently had need of a car for more than even 60 miles at the same time. I.e. we could totally do an electric car as long as we had another for those times that we knew it might be a hassle to find a charging station somewhere in order to complete or return from a journey and then that person would not use the electric one.
I would guess most households are actually like that, not everyone is driving across the country every couple of weeks as much as they appear to based on some comments one reads across the internet car sites. Some sources are reporting that there may in fact be a longer range (200mile) option for 2019 but at a higher price. No word on whether that would be only for the top of the line or available throughout the Leaf range. This possible option was not discussed at the event, I read about it later or would have asked.
The size – The new Leaf feels larger inside than the old one and is what I would call big enough. I (at 6 foot 1 inch with a 32 inch inseam) fit in the back seat without my knees hitting the seat in front of me and with my hair just starting to brush the ceiling.
The driver’s seat area provided plenty of room in all dimensions and the passenger seat did likewise although I felt that the seat was mounted higher than (or did not adjust as low as) the driver’s seat.
Ingress and egress didn’t present any complications, overall the interior room felt slightly roomier than a VW Golf or Ford Focus if not as upright as a Chevy Bolt (which is comfortable too but feels smaller). The trunk space seems very spacious (The floor is extremely low) for the size of the car and is obviously accessed via a large hatch opening.
Materials – In this regard the Leaf is much improved over the outgoing version. It’s now on par with most mid-range Japanese cars as far as materials and plastics go. The seats were comfortable and the seat material was a notch above other cloths, with the featured car (a mid-range SV model) having an attractive striped pattern that looked good.
The door panel uppers were mostly harder plastics but textured well and with contrasting colors to avoid a monotonous look. I didn’t feel the dashboard only because it’s not my habit to feel the dash in my car and I forgot. I apologize if you feel I have failed you there. A lot of people seemed to ooh and aah over the electric seats so that must be a new feature…Other than that, from the driver’s seat the interior could more or less be in a Nissan Sentra, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, or Chevy Cruze. Utterly conventional, in other words, which is an improvement.
Charging – A level 2 charge using a 240V outlet (so at home for instance with something akin to a dryer outlet) would provide about 22miles of range per hour of charge. Overnight you’d fill it from completely full to empty (if it was actually empty). In a total emergency you could plug it into a standard 3-prong 110V outlet and get a full charge in 16 hours, so more than half overnight.
Realistically you’d come home from work or an errand or whatever and plug it in and while you did whatever you do at home it is filling itself getting ready for your next outing. While out, if plugged into a standard charging station it would refill at the same rate, however if one was to use a DC fast charger, also found in various locations out and about, it can charge up to 88 miles of range within thirty minutes.
I’ve done a bit of reading on the subject but am not an expert on this subject beyond that I don’t think it would cause me an issue and I am far from a tech geek. I have however spoken with several owners and all assure me that in reality one drives the car, goes wherever one goes to, sees a charger, parks there and plugs in while doing whatever the errand is and then gets back in the car, notes an increased remaining range and continues. Rare is the time that one actually is concerned about running out.
And the infrastructure is improving every day. One person I spoke with happily takes his Leaf to the airport when picking up family knowing full well he would never make it back on the original charge but simply plugs into one of the airport chargers while waiting at the airport pickup lot. It seems to work while admittedly currently being a bit more anxiety-inducing for those of us not used to the concept yet. Change is hard, I know…
Pricing – The new Leaf’s base price is $29,990 plus destination which seems like a lot but is right in there with the competition and actually less than the outgoing base model. In the United States, assuming one’s income is high enough to generate a federal tax obligation of at least $7,500, the U.S. government will provide a tax credit (not deduction) of $7,500 towards it.
In my state (Colorado), the state government currently provides another $5,000 tax credit whether or not I actually owe that much, if it’s more than I owe I would get a refund check for the balance. So, for me, the price would effectively be reduced by $12,500. Your place of residence may offer different incentives from various parties.
The car in base form is easily worth the $17,490 that remains. However, it also makes the used prices that are somewhere between $8,000 and $15,000 on average for cars that are between one and five years and with up to 50,000 miles or so seem like a bit less of a bargain, comparatively speaking.
Obviously the price goes up if one selects the higher-spec models and/or other packages and options but of course one can also get more, including active lane control along with adaptive cruise control, resulting in what is known as “Level 2 Autonomy” and a host of other niceties. After playing with the online configurator for a bit, the highest I was able to spec a car to was $37,425, which again is about where the Bolt starts.
No, you can’t go to sleep or start playing bingo but assuming a road with good markings and a finger resting on the wheel it should take care of much of the driving. The concept of autonomy personally still freaks me out and likely a lot of you as well, but I was concerned about adaptive cruise control on its own as well at first back when I had my Chrysler 300C, now think it’s a fantastic feature that I’d love to have in every car.
At one time people probably worried about regular cruise control too, right? “By golly, Martha, the car, I push this button after I braked and now it’s just accelerating back up to 55mph by itself, my feet are up on the hard dashboard, what the?”
Still, the Chevy Bolt starts at almost $7,000 more in its base form, which is a large chunk of money. Sure, the extra range it provides is very nice, but with that kind of a price difference one really would start to think about the actual use case of either car and whether or not it would be justified/needed. 238 miles is huge and would exceed most of the market’s use case.
I think Nissan’s 150 miles were a very thoughtfully calculated goal, it’s easily more than most people need on a daily basis even if they live quite a distance away from a major city, but it’s not so meager as to turn people off or cause real concern without having them pay for something they will almost never need. I think we will start to see many more cars with between 150 and 200 miles of range soon.
If nothing else, the Leaf LOOKS like more of a real car and not just a very small hatchback. That’s not knocking the Bolt, I happen to like it and the shape but my wife definitely balked at the price (of the Bolt) and I never took her for someone who would equate price with size before, it really surprised me.
The Leaf is much more palatable in that regard and looks/seems more “normal”. I further believe the first company that offers a fully electric CUV at a competitive price will clean up. Imagine a Ford E-scape or Honda E-CR-V with a $45,000 sticker but eligible for, in my case, $12,500 of tax credits.
The Bolt and some of the other electrics do have a more sophisticated battery management system instead of the non-temperature controlled Leaf one which likely accounts for some of the cost difference. The less controlled the battery is, the greater a variation in range that will be encountered based on environmental factors such as heat or cold. This would matter more in a car with less range than one with range to spare.
Nissan has had some issues (mainly to do with degradation) with their early batteries but seems to have been working with customers that had problems and has upgraded the batteries during the first generation’s lifespan with recent version reportedly being much improved. Most seem to agree that the last few years of Leaf (2013 and newer) have significantly less issues than the earlier ones.
The current batteries (2017 model year) are warranted for 96 months/100,000 miles (whichever occurs earlier), I would assume that this would not change in the new model. My understanding is that Nissan has extended the warranty on some of the earlier batteries along with swapping some early batteries out for later, better batteries. Interestingly the batteries are warrantied based on degradation (i.e. how many “bars” of charge are showing in the display), not outright failure, so some people advocate looking for a used car with a borderline degraded battery but lots of warranty left to bank on a free replacement battery. It’s a strategy, I suppose.
At the event I spoke with a lot of owners, ranging from the real “True Believer” that currently owns three(!) Leafs, all in white (!!), as she was convinced that having them in white would mean less use of the air conditioner resulting in more range (Oooo-kay! My wife was eyeing a way out…) to the regular couple just like us with several kids that bought one 21 months ago to have for when their oldest child started to drive a couple of years from then.
They now find that they use it as their main family vehicle and are needing a new one since the kid will be taking the first one over full time soon. This family also currently has a Subaru Outback and a Toyota Sienna and the Leaf changed their driving lives completely, so far they’ve put about 35,000 miles on it and the other cars rarely get used. They actually have contests to see who can come home with the least remaining range…
I’ll say I was impressed, both with the event and the car. I’m also apparently signed up to have them bring me a car to my house for a short test drive later in the year so we’ll see how that goes. I unfortunately did not win the free trip to Tennessee that included a factory tour where the car is built, a tour of all their facilities out there, and some sightseeing money, but our tablemates did win it so we were excited for them.
For the foodies out there (We do have some, right?), dinner was prepared by Chef Elise Wiggins of Cattivela, which was just rated one of the top 25 restaurants in Denver by 5280 magazine (our “local” magazine), and consisted (to start) of an apple fennel salad with vanilla poached golden raisins, goat cheese and toasted pine nuts with balsamic vinaigrette.
Then one could select either Tuscan braised beef shank over creamy polenta with lemon gremolata OR Lasagna al forno with truffle mushroom and butternut squash, all followed by an absolutely heavenly Tiramisu – espresso soaked sponge cake with mascarpone cheese, chocolate and fresh berries.
It was delicious and much better than regular wedding food. I would highly recommend giving her restaurant a try if you are in the area. Afterwards coffee was served and a band started to play.
All in all a delightful evening for a car guy and/or a Leaf lover. Upon leaving, we were each presented with a goodie bag containing a hat, shirt, and higher-end aluminum water bottle, all Leaf branded. We then got in our gas guzzler, pulled out of the lot with our faces averted from the others in shame, and headed home pondering our 17 miles per gallon of Super Unleaded average. People, the future isn’t just coming, it’s already starting its second generation. And it’s real.
(Note: Please excuse the photos. Between the crowd of people and the lighting playing havoc with my iPhone’s camera it was tough going…)
“… all in white (!!), as she was convinced that having them in white would mean less use of the air conditioner resulting in more range (Oooo-kay! My wife was eyeing a way out…)”
Thing is, she’s right. What are you trying to say here?
I was meaning it’s a bit extremist. We don’t live in Florida or Arizona.
In any case, it takes far more energy to heat an electric car than it does to cool one, especially one that doesn’t use a liquid cooling system, so any heat has to be electrically generated. We have more days that require heat here than we do days that require A/C but it’s not usually the Arctic Circle either in the winter.
Early in the 1st generation the Leaf switched to a heat pump system for the cabin. Running the heater uses about as much electricity as running the AC, greatly increasing range in cold weather.
I rented a Leaf for a week in San Diego. It’s a perfect city car and SoCal has the infrastructure to make longer trips possible. You’re absolutely right, the future is here. And it’s pretty good.
Every once in awhile I wonder if something like this would be perfect for me. I live 1 mile from my house and most of my daily driving (if I have any at all) is within 50 miles. I would bike sometimes but there is a 4 lane highway (with a traffic light) between me and the office, and sometimes it is taking your life in your hands crossing there in a car, let alone a bike.
But then again I can do this with my existing car for no payment at all other than an occasional fuel stop. But something like this might be worth considering if I were to rethink my fleet.
It sounds like the perfect use case since you have extra cars anyway for longer trips to the CC meetups. For you it potentially makes sense once some of the others are worn out or gone for whatever other reason. No, it doesn’t make sense to replace any of the current ones you have for one.
If your use radius is really only some 50 miles, used Leafs go very very cheap; $7-9k, or so. I think that would fit into Jim’s preferences even better. 🙂
I’ll second that, Jim.
Future classic? – innovative, yes – collectable, no
Everything will be a “curbside” classic one day and I’ll bet a 20+ year old electric will be more interesting than a 20year old Civic!
If you think CC is dedicated primarily to collectible cars, you must be very new here. Welcome! And maybe you should read our Welcome: https://www.curbsideclassic.com/welcome-to-curbside-classics/
In Europe, Renault sell the Zoe, a smaller and cheaper car than that built by it’s partner Nissan. The British magazine CAR really likes the Zoe…the 1st generation Leaf? Not so much.
This month’s issue of CAR has a half page with pictures devoted to the new Leaf. The pictured car is white and looks vaguely like a VW Golf as styled by Toyota, or maybe a Golf with strong hints of Prius?
Touted as features of the newer car are self parking, assisted by 12 sonars and 4 cameras, as well as autonomous driving, and smartphone control of charging and climate control.
BTW, the CAR article claims Nissan sets the range for the new Leaf at 235 miles (but then again the European fuel mileage tests are different from those of the U. S.).
The video showed at the presentation mentioned a range of 400km, about 240 miles but the battery was apparently still the 40kWh one. If the UK one in CAR has the 40kWh then it’s the same as here and any range difference is due to a likely way more generous EU testing regime. Gasoline cars routinely get significantly higher ratings there than here even with the same engine.
Golf with Prius hints is about right but prettier than a Prius. Maybe more Chevy Cruze Hatchback…A little less upright than Golf but that’s the size class wherein the Bolt looks like it’s one size class smaller (i.e. Polo).
The EU range projections are as equally optimistic as the fuel consumption projections, meaning wildly so.
X2.
If they didn’t give you a diecast model as a parting gift the event was a failure (just kidding, but its a bit surprising they didn’t do that).
Anyway, thanks for the great write up. I too am pondering when the trickle of electric vehicles will turn into a flood. The Model 3 will probably be successful eventually, but Tesla lacks the dealer network to really make a huge impact. I also think it will be a CUV of some sort, definitely with optional AWD with a range of at least 250 miles. In terms of pricing I’d guess somewhere in the low 30’s before tax.
There are three Tesla stores in Vancouver.
From what I can tell, the “new” Leaf is really just a big refresh. Same wheelbase, and as best as I can tell from pictures, it looks like the same body shell artfully reskinned to look different. But the expanded range and other tech advances are the big changes, which are going to be crucial when competing against the Bolt and Model 3 going forward.
They did mention a lot of engineering work to increase crash safety but I suspect there is commonality as in many if not most Japanese follow-up models. I happened to have the chance to look at a 2012 model yesterday and the trunk area for one in the new one seems larger and the shape seems a bit longer than before. However it IS styled to look that way (lower, longer) with the “floating” roof design etc.
It’s be nice to have both old and new side by side and be able to go back and forth to really compare though.
The pricing is also a crucial item, and it for sure looks more upscale than the old “frog”-looking one, both inside and out.
Where is the line between a new generation and a major refresh? The body is larger with new styling and the interior is completely redesigned. If this isn’t a new generation, the 1991 Caprice wasn’t a new generation B-body.
“The body is larger” Is it? I don’t think so, except maybe a bit of length from different bumpers. I’m attaching profile images of both here; looks to me like its very much the same body, and like the doors would interchange, except for possibly their exterior skin.
My point is that it’s not really a “new” car. It’s a refreshed car with clever styling touches to make it look less dorky, with a new interior and larger battery. Nothing wrong with that, but I don’t think that qualifies as a “new car”. It’s “new” as in current, but not as in all-new.
Here’s the 2018 “new” Leaf.
Good luck trying to swap doors between a 1991 and 1990 Caprice. Or any body part. It was a drastically new body, substantially wider.
Thanks for that, I looked at some other pix as well and the front doors do appear to be the same or at least extremely similar. The rear doors are different as the new one has a character line below the door handle that wasn’t there before and the “point” at the top appears to be higher, but that point could be an illusion and if so, then yes, it could just be the “skin”.
The rocker panels are different as well as is the rear quarterpanel.
Maybe the wheelbase is the same as well as some or a lot of the substructure but most body panels are different?
Interesting how moving the headlights forward and modifying the rear pillar makes it look a lot lower and longer when it really isn’t!
Wheelbase is the same. the difference in the rear door is minor, easily done.
The key thing is whether the inner body structure/platform has changed dimensions to any significant extent. Obviously not.
My definition of a truly “new” car is a new platform/body structure, as in the various generations of the Golf.
This is a “body-lift”, strategic cosmetic surgery to make it look less dorky and more dynamic. it’s apparently well done, as I haven’t heard/read anyone describe it for what it really is.
Thanks for the pictures, these are the first ones I’ve seen of the new model. The doors weren’t noticeable in Jim’s pictures.
It’s still a fine line between what constitutes an update vs a new model. The 8th gen Corolla used the same doors as the 7th gen but was otherwise mostly a new car.
I found this at Car&Driver which supports your suspicions. It’s probably slightly more than just a “body-lift” since the existing structure has been beefed up but not an all new platform/structure:
“The designers did work with some constraints, however. The 2018 Leaf carries over many of the body-structure hard points of the outgoing Leaf; so, while the sheetmetal is all new, it keeps to the same form factor as the previous model, albeit with a “lower posture,” as chief engineer Hiroki Isobe put it. Nissan added additional crossmembers, for a 15 percent improvement in torsional rigidity, and worked to lower the center of gravity as well as bolster crashworthiness with high-strength steel for the side pillars and side sills.
In all, the Leaf’s body in white is about 100 pounds lighter than before, but with its slightly heavier battery and additional active-safety and tech features, curb weight has only increased a modest 33 pounds or so. Exterior dimensions are close to those of the old car. The new Leaf is 0.4 inch lower, 0.8 inch wider, and 1.4 inches longer (based on preliminary international specs), and the wheelbase remains the same.”
I drive about it 50 km a day, and rarely take highway trips. An electric car would be perfect for me. As soon it costs less for an electric car to run, I’ll buy one.
Even as a rabid electrophile, the first Leaf’s styling put me off. I like the looks of the new one much better. 150 miles range is plenty for daily use in a metro area. You could even add on an unanticipated trip across town, like to the airport or a hospital, with no sweat.
Like the “regular couple” you met, our electric Fiat with its 80 mile range is my daily commuter and our default car evenings and weekends. Lily loves to ride in it, which is high praise as her car is a 1st-gen Mini Cooper S. (She’s afraid of scratching or dinging my pride and joy, so I haven’t been able to get her to drive it yet.)
I used the Prius last weekend for a Home Depot run that included 8-foot lumber. We drive it to the coast and other weekend trips for both range and room reasons. Otherwise it’s parked for weeks at a time.
Judging by how many of the 1st-gen Leafs I see around Portland and all the powertrain, interior and exterior improvements, at the same price as before, I think Nissan has a real winner here. Certainly a future CC.
PS: We just got 4.2 kW of solar panels installed on our Portland roof this week. Switch on soon after inspections and a new meter. Like most such systems, it’s connected to the grid without local storage. All the same I like to think I’ll be driving a solar-powered car.
“Even as a rabid electrophile, the first Leaf’s styling put me off”
Really? as someone that has just purchased a used 2015 Leaf(and loves it!)
the looks of the car never entered into my decision to buy.
To each their own I guess…
Congrats on your Leaf! By all reports they’re really good cars.
I’ve been obsessed with car styling ever since I was a little tyke. Drew my own designs constantly. So styling matters almost as much as technology to me. The first-gen Leaf’s rear bustle with a crease just put me off from day one.
Lucky for me I like the Fiat 500e’s styling and I live in a state where I could get one.
Another example: I’ve been a major Prius enthusiast since before they came out and I like the looks of our 2010 very much. But the new one looks like Godzilla designed it, so I’m afraid it would not be welcome in my driveway. I’m hoping Toyota comes to its senses by the time they style their long-range EV.
Jim, I bought my 2012 Chevy Volt in January 2012 and have had 5 1/2 + years of trouble free predominantly battery sourced electric driving, with on average 36-40 miles battery range during the warm months and on average about 25 miles battery range during the winter when battery power is additionally used for resistance heating of the car’s cabin.
With hypermile techniques and without A/C during the summer, I have been able to break 50 miles total battery range before the gas powered ICE electric generator range extender would kick on automatically. Driving purely electric is an addictive pleasure.
The vast majority of my driving is under 35 miles/ day so the battery range of my Series 1 Volt is adequate using heat or A/C just like a regular car. I recharge nightly in my garage, plugging in, just like my mobile cell phone is recharged nightly. Recharging on 120V takes about 8 hours, on 240V about half that time. Recharging nightly adds about $20-$25/month to my electric bill here in Northern Ohio.
For longer trips, I have the range extending 1.4 Litre ICE with easy gas fill-ups allowing me virtually unlimited driving range except for quick gasoline tank fill-ups on the road. For me, the Volt has been a perfect blend of predominantly battery electric powered driving with the assurance of easy extended gasoline powered long distance range when needed. Since I drive primarily on battery supplied electricity, my lifetime gasoline usage average is about 127 mpg through almost 6 years of usage.
Although Paul N. has his doubts about Volt reliability, my Volt , in my hands, has been a paragon of reliability, so far requiring only routine scheduled oil changes–maybe I’ve been lucky, but other Volt owners that I have spoken to also report similar fine reliability.
I have an extra set of wheels with Blizzak snow tires for the winter, and winter time driving has been a snap here in the Great Lakes snow belt.
BTW Electric cars are delightfully quiet on the road. A bonus! An additional bonus is that my wife enjoys driving the Volt.
Driving electric has also given me an understanding of the massive infrastructural needs that will have to be satisfied before the national “fleet” becomes fully electric. A major hurdle is how do apartment and condo dwellers recharge easily. If one is a home owner, like you, then it is much easier to recharge at night in your own garage whether at 120V or at 240V, but if you park on the street, then there is a major recharging challenge, at times almost insurmountable currently, further worsened by occasional charger cable thefts in central cities. Vandalism and thievery, like electricity, never sleeps, it seems. We will see how this infrastructural issue gets resolved, and over whatever time period it takes, but don’t count on this issue being resolved overnight. Maybe, as you said several months ago in Dearborn, all gas stations will need to add quick recharging capacity nearby on the premises to accommodate electrics.
Glad to see that you are being seduced by the prospect of electric driving. You will enjoy it.
“Driving purely electric is an addictive pleasure.” That’s so true. You may think a gas-powered high-performance engine delivers fast throttle response, but electric response is literally instant.
I’m not just talking about Teslas either. My Fiat 500e is spec’d at 111 bhp and 147 lb.-ft., available across the speed range (see the graph). Makes it feel like much more.
Seeing that motor curve makes me have to ask what is the limiting factor behind that flat torque curve? Battery discharge rate, circuit ampacity, or driveline strength? My guess is battery discharge rate and then of course the circuit was designed with that maximum in mind.
It’s discharge rate. A battery can deliver up to some maximum current without overloading it. Torque in an electric motor is a function of current draw. More current generates a stronger magnetic field with more force. Specifically torque is proportional to voltage times current divided by rpm.
That’s the clever thing about the Tesla. A 300 mile battery pack can deliver more current than an 80 mile pack. More batteries = more range = more current = more torque = ludicrous mode.
Thousands of people can and do pay a premium for ultra-high performance luxury sedans. That premium pays for the batteries, which started out expensive and are getting cheaper by the year as volume and technology go up. There’s Tesla’s start-up business plan in a nutshell. Damned smart if you ask me.
I’m fully aware of maximum safe discharge rates and the relationship of electrical power and torque output as I teach that stuff to high schoolers and know what a motor curve should look like.
I’m sure the motor and electronics cooling system is also designed around the max discharge rate so no way to really hot rod it and safely unleash all that missing torque.
Scout, you asked him a question that was phrased as looking for an answer and then he answered by confirming your suspicion while also adding to everything in a meaningful/explanatory way for those of us that don’t teach this stuff for a living or studied it at length.
You’re coming across as more than a little condescending/defensive. I certainly appreciate the input and your knowledge but a little civility wouldn’t hurt.
Yes, charging is a problem if you live in an apartment. We can charge up where I work, and a few charging stations are popping up at apartment complexes around here.
Truly broad EV adoption won’t happen until 300 mile range and 20-minute charging and chargers are common, and cost what we pay for gas cars today. Then shopping centers and coffee joints will all have charging.
It’ll be a 20 year process, and we’re about 5 years in so far.
I predict a return of the drive-in restaurant. Plug in, chow down and watch premium TV. Robot service.
“We now offer complimentary charging with our meals” will be an oft-heard phrase in ten years. An ideal place for a restaurant like this would be a limited access tollway like the Muskogee Turnpike south of Tulsa where there was one restaurant and gas station to stop at without having to pay a toll to both exit and get back on.
Told you so! “Elon Musk plans Tesla Supercharger drive-in restaurant, and Twitter goes nuts” –Autoblog.
the apartment charging problem doesn’t seem to be stopping wealthy new yorkers from buying teslas. my building’s parking garage is loaded with them and they have at least one charging station in there. the roger smith hotel across form grand central station has a rolling charger on the curb for guests. i have my doubts about tesla but it is nice to have a new american luxury icon 🙂
i think a bigger issue than the widespread availability of charging stations will be upgrading the north american power grid to handle the extra load.
What’s your electric rate cost in Ohio? Just curious so I can compare to mine (just under 9c per kWh). I think the Volt is perfect at what it does, when it came out and pure electrics had very limited range it made all the sense in the world. Now the longer range electrics are starting to take over from there. It was a great stopgap and I believe its battery pack is considered one of the better ones out there. I’m glad you are enjoying it, I know we talked about it a bit over the summer.
My thoughts re: the infrastructure:
1. I think gas stations (as with Shell in Europe) are going to come on board with this additional revenue source soon, especially once fast chargers become more available/widespread. They’ve already got the locations with parking spots and snack shops, it’s only logical. I’m envisioning switchable charge speed rates and multiple cables for the several different connectors that are out there.
2. Existing condos will start to add them in their parking garages/lots after new condos start to supply them from the get-go and end up with a competitive advantage vs the older ones. Same with other (individual) rental properties, I think another few years and it will be an advertisable feature and the cost will be able to be recouped within a year by higher rent. For street parkers the problems you point out will be a bigger challenge. Then again as batteries packs get bigger or denser and range increases then topping off every night is less important, especially as other charge points such as gas stations and parking garages and places of employment add more chargers. Again, offering them will be seen as a competitive advantage at first and eventually just be ubiquitous and planned in to any new development. I haven’t looked into it at all but assume that some of the more, ahem, “forward-thinking” cities (Berkeley, Boulder, Portland etc) either already have or are considering mandating charge points for new commercial construction. Since the Federal Gov’t, many states and some localities offer incentives to purchase an EV, it makes sense that the localities would mandate infrastructure to accommodate and/or drive adoption rates. They mandate the number of parking spots already, it’s not a big jump from there.
I don’t have doubts about the Volt’s reliability. Its record speaks for itself. I just mentioned to you that I had read recently (at the time) about a recall for the gen2 Volt.
My poor simple mind can’t quite yet wrap itself around raw quail eggs. Do quail get salmonella? Give me some hardboiled quail eggs and a shaker of salt and we might be in business.
These intrigue me, as do all these electric cars; and in a CC Effect I passed a Leaf (seeing one is a rare event) earlier this afternoon. It was doing 50 in a 70 mph limit area and I buzzed by in the work Impala wondering how much charge he had left.
I’m in a situation somewhat like JPC; I’m 2.5 miles from the office but don’t have to worry about crossing an ugly intersection although my radius is 100+ miles. I’ll freely admit to questioning the sanity of taking a 5,500 pound Ford F-150 to work daily or taking it three miles to the hardware store. Perhaps I’ll adjust when the pickup wears out…..then I’ll have to put a 220 outlet in the garage. Infrastructure here for non-residential based recharges are nearly nonexistent, although I did see one in Branson, of all places, about a year ago.
Jim, I’m glad you went.
I still feel ok so…I didn’t really think about it before trying it, not sure what that says about me. I did not have seconds though.
You should get an electrician to put your 220 in. We’ve discussed your plumbing work. 🙂 220 isn’t as forgiving as a little bit of sudsy water in the sink.
It also had a small center console. But the 1st gen’s is even smaller, almost nonexistent. Perfect.
Would you believe I can do wiring with less trouble than plumbing? I ran both new 110 and 220 lines with my laundry room – where I had the plumbing challenges.
If there are problems with my wiring, I’d be shocked.
Jason, good to see your comments again.
Like you, I am practical. As much as I like driving electric locally, when we drive to Florida from Ohio, we take the big SUV. Why? We have the needed room to fill it up with our “stuff”, roomy like your F-150 but with a cabin like an Expedition, and we are able to cruise comfortably at the speeds necessary to keep up with the prevailing traffic in the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida where 80+ or higher traffic speeds are routine. It’s amazing the speeds we see in routine traffic on Atlanta’s, Charlotte’s, and Jacksonville’s Interstates, (speedy practice for the NASCAR oval tracks with drafting?–no doubt!) and I am certain you know what I mean. I have experienced routine speedy driving in Missouri too! Actually I don’t mind, since we get to Florida faster! Until speed and range become comparable, in addition to rapid recharging equivalency to rapid fuel retanking, electrics will be at a disadvantage for rapidly covered long distance travel typical on Southern Interstates. So far electrics, even the Tesla S would be challenged with rapid, long distance travel through the South to match our curent travel time to Florida.
Additionally at our Florida destination, we are forced to park outside under a carport with no possibility for recharging. Additionally, there are no close by easily accessible recharging stations. A Leaf, a Bolt, and, to a much lesser degree, our Volt ( except when driving by gasoline) would be useless at our Florida destination because of the recharging hassles.
Increased battery range, rapid charging, and the buildout of easy rapid charging sites everywhere will be required for the hoped for, expected fleet conversion to full electrics. Something in the future. When? Hopefully sooner than I think or expect.
Thanks you! I’ve been extraordinarily busy lately and my time online has been minimal.
A gentleman I work with has a Volt, only a bit newer than yours. He and his wife commute together, 22 miles or so each way. From his reports the gas engine only kicks in for the last few miles of their trip home. The gas mileage you’ve experienced is similar to his and he, like most Missourians, views speed limits as a mild recommendation instead of some hard, fast, rule.
Big vehicles are the only way to travel. Take all your junk and still have room to stretch out.
I miss these kind of events. My first job out of college was during the dot com boom at cars.com and for a car crazy 20 year old it was a thrill. This was still when the Chicago Auto Show still had a fair amount of new model intros. (Chicago used to get almost all of them, but in the 90s Detroit pushed to get them there.) I covered the show one year and being able to see those new models in the flesh before anyone else was a heck of a thrill- I probably would have done that job for free if that’s all I had to do.
As for the Leaf itself, I definitely think the first Leaf will be a future CC, because of its historical impact and its utterly bizarre styling. The new one is undoubtedly a better vehicle, but I think time will find the OG more charming.
Not sure if my next car is going to be electric, or the one after. Infrastructure developments are a bit slower here in NZ, so not many chargers around yet. Give it 10 years it’s going to be a very different landscape…
Lamb shank referred to as “beef” per the menu? News to me.. (as a resident foodie, yes, I went there. Sorry Jim). Elise has good reason to be Wiggins for that mixup.
Haha, totally my error, corrected, thank you!
I’m interested in the electric route but I generally own my cars long term (10+ years, 250K+ miles) and I’m not sure any battery-powered car is going to last this long. But on the other end of the scale, the modest resale value of electric cars would seem to limit the trade in route. With the competing ICE cars routinely going 250K+ miles, what’s the real world upper limit for the electrics?
Tesla for one seems to think their cars are easily 500k capable. Obviously ancillary systems will need to be repaired/maintained (brakes, etc as with any car) and the battery may or may not make it, but the motor(s) likely should.
Batteries are replaceable, costs for replacements are coming down and only will do so more as there are more cars on the road. The battery warranty on most electrics is better than most any other warranty on any part of an ICE car.
Electrics have less moving parts to go wrong, no engine, no transmission. Other systems are relatively the same from one to the other. The biggest. most expensive, and potential point of failure would of course be the battery. But otherwise, if a gas powered Ford Focus or VW Golf could conceivably go the distance why shouldn’t the electric version of the same go as far?
MANY people used to say that a Prius would not hold up and many people used to parrot the line about it needing a new battery every couple of years. That’s obviously been completely disproven. Full electrics are simpler than a Prius by dint of not having the gasoline engine so…
We had a Tesla crash at high speed here about a year ago. The battery parts were strewn all over and were exploding at random, causing emergency personnel no end of problems in trying to extricate the occupants (who died at the scene). This is one side effect of electrification I had not considered until then. Of course punctured gas tanks are dangerous too, just a different kind of dangerous that everyone is pretty well used to. I suppose that training and experience will get emergency responders up to speed on how to deal with battery fires/explosions. But I wonder if this kind of thing becomes more commonplace, will the federal safety agencies start regulating battery construction or configuration in electric vehicles?
Tesla brings the main battery cable up to a place under the hood that’s marked for first responders to cut, disconnecting the battery pack from the car. I don’t know if my Fiat has a similar feature or not. I agree this sort of thing will become standard among EVs.
It just takes lots of water. There is no evidence to suggest fires are more common than in gas cars. And when the batteries do go, it’s not typically in one sudden explosion like a gas tank; there are internal safety controls in the battery pack that either stop or slow down the rate of the fire spreading from cell to cell.
That must have been an exceptionally brutal crash to break up the battery pack like that. I’ve not heard of that before.
Oh yeah, it was a bad one that left a debris field 150 yards long. Because the car is so new the police have had trouble calculating its speed. But as my daughter might say, it was going hella fast when it hit a tree. The impact must have been enough to scatter parts of the battery pack everywhere at the same time it ignited a major fire in the shell of the car itself. I think this was about as bad as an accident can get in one of these. This news report showed some video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrT5MA_iTXs
Some Model S cars in commercial use have logged over 350k miles, without any major issues. Battery degregation is turning out to less than I, Tesla, or anyone else expected, a major boon. It appears that 300-500k miles on a battery pack is very doable, with no more than about 10% range loss at the end of that, often less. After an initial 5% capacity loss after a few years, the Tesla battery appears to degrade very slowly.
EVs have transmissions they are just single speed units but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a box of fluid with gears in it.
Sure. How often do we change the oil in an RWD differential? Same thing.
Just because people don’t change the differential fluid in a RWD doesn’t mean that it shouldn’t be done, nor that it isn’t subject to absorbing moisture and breaking down in a fixed reduction gear box as used in EVs.
Let them and some Nissan dealers will change it every 15K when you get your brake fluid replaced.
Ok, no transmission in the sense that a Chrysler Minivan has a transmission and what people picture in their minds or on a lift at Aamco.
A single reduction gear doesn’t seem to have a lot of things that can go wrong or make someone worry about maintenance.
In short, there is no “shifting” going on.
How about 100 years? Monte Shelton here in Portland has a 1917 Detroit Electric I did a CC on a few years ago. He drives it from time to time and it works fine, like any other EV, just charge it up and drive. Aside from paint, upholstery and brass, all it needed after a century was new batteries and refurbished motor brushes and controller contacts, functions which are wear-free electronic today.
As Jim said there are way fewer moving parts to wear out in an electric car. No oil to change, timing belts to break or plugs to wear out. Service interval on mine is two years, just for cabin air filters, check the brakes and CV joints, etc.
Lithium ion batteries that are well managed, like the EV’s computers do, have very long lifetimes, since they’re never allowed to go completely flat. I expect we’ll see the same long lifetimes we’ve seen in hybrid cars for 17 years now. Battery packs are made of over 100 3.2V cells. When a pack does wear out, it can usually be restored just by replacing a few cells.
All in all I expect EV lifetimes to be at least as good as combustion cars, and cost of ownership to be less. Ultimately interiors and chassis will wear out just like anything else on the road.
“Used, they seem to be a fantastic bargain but having looked at a few, they clearly are somewhat basic and built to a budget. If gas powered instead of electric nobody would ever buy one. OK, maybe they would but I don’t think Nissan would even offer it.”
They do, it’s called the Versa.
Or the Yaris, if you are a Toyota fan. I rented one earlier this year and I was surprised at how much I liked it. Simple, basic transportation, with an ignition key that I can still get a copy made for at a local home center for under $20.
I could live with a Yaris Ia for a long time – six speed, it’s really a Mazda 2 under the Toyota badge.
In Australia there are no government incentives to buying and owning an electric vehicle. Toyota made the hybrid Camry here for a few years but they seemed to be purchased mainly by taxi drivers. Holden tried to sell the Volt but it was simply too expensive at $60,000. I’ve seen exactly one on the road in 4 years. Here in the West the local auto club has installed some recharging stations in rural locations as have some local councils, but they are few and far between. Teslas are virtually non-existent as are Leafs and MIEVs.
Uh oh, you’ve pointed out one of the key drivers of EV adoption: government requirements and subsidies. In markets where legislation and/or government incentives are abundant, you see EV adoption. No question that global EV usage will continue to rise as governments from California to European countries to Beijing are mandating EVs. When generous incentives are in place (like Sweden) then all is good. When they are removed (like Denmark) sales plunge (Washington Post, July 10). ZEV mandates force the issue, but can result in significant economic challenges for automakers.
Tesla, despite its enormous market valuation (higher than Ford and Nissan) does not make any money. That doesn’t matter one iota to Tesla’s investors, who are profiting from market speculation and EV frenzy from governments, media and “tastemakers.” These investors also seem to envision a day where Telsa will become like Amazon and suddenly wake up with a near-monopoly position and enormous long-term pricing power. Tesla fans point out high gross margins (as expected on high priced luxury products) and assume that those will somehow appear when the company achieves higher volume. But, and it is a BIG but, Tesla does not account for R&D expense in its gross margin calculations (you know, like those dinosaur car companies who profitably churn out millions of cars annually but deserve to die because they aren’t innovative like Silicon Valley). Take R&D expense into account, and that gross margin drops significantly. But wait, Tesla fans scream, the R&D is nearly done, Teslas are basically perfect and now production will simply soar, so profits will come pouring in. Except that Tesla can’t seem to mass produce the lower priced (and lower margin) Model 3 yet, despite their bullish claims. But hey, that’s the fault of “suppliers” and Tesla will lick it any day now. Ford Motor would be crucified if they said that, but who cares, FoMoCo are luddite dinosaurs, not the visionaries of a planet saving future. Tesla’s SG&A costs are also very high, and have not come down even as production has increased, so they are not demonstrating an ability to profitably leverage economies of scale. I know, I know, cut out all the mundane accounting crap, that is for small minds….
So let’s look at consumers and consumer demand–where governments mandate EV adoption through regulations and/or incentives, sales do fine, though still just among a small set of buyers. For 2016, EV sales represented 0.2% of global vehicle sales, and those sales were concentrated in markets with strong government intervention, not as a result of natural market demand. Even in China, which is being very aggressive in mandating EV adoption, EV sales equal 2% of the total market. Of course, as China mandates that all new vehicles be EVs by 2030, then huge market demand will be forever cemented. Except that China seeks to benefit Chinese firms, not foreign ones, so those soaring Chinese EV sales will not benefit Tesla or Nissan or GM.
What about the charging infrastructure to power a world brimming with EVs? Again, who is going to pay for it, and why? Will it be governments through tax dollars? Private enterprise forced to do it at a loss? Will someone figure out a magical way to actually profit from remote electric charging? How will aging electrical grids handle the added load? Britain is already worried about brown outs, even though current EV penetration is small…. What happens to everyone’s utility bills when enormous demand is added? How will renewable energy sources be able to scale to complete this green “circle of virtue”? Oh, that’s right, enormous taxpayer subsidies. Or added demand will be sated by continuing to burn fossil fuels. Someone, somewhere is going to pay mightily for this transformation, and large volumes of EVs will not be “free” or even totally “green” when it comes to energy consumption.
Point is, this transformation is tough and far from certain, despite all the efforts and hype. I have a great deal of respect for Nissan and the company’s willingness to be a mass market pioneer in this space, as an add-on to their core business of profitably selling ICE vehicles. The humble Leaf is also the world’s best selling EV, so that counts for something as well. I also wish that Toyota would wake-up and think about how to be more aggressive in promoting their Hybrid EVs, which at the end of the day will still be counted as EVs and have already demonstrated real world adoption through natural consumer demand (in part by answering range anxiety and charging infrastructure issues).
I know, I’m sorry that I’m not properly worshipping at the alter of Tesla. I might even get banned in Malibu…. But I do genuflect at the feet of Carlos Ghosn over this humble “low range” EV emerging from a profitable global car company that is hedging its bets for an uncertain future.
Damn George, it sounds like you might have an economics class or two under your belt. 🙂 You make some excellent points. Nothing is free and the power to run our vehicles has to come from somewhere. We cannot take our existing power grid and generating capacity and expect it to handle an explosion of EV charging too. True, much of that charging will take place at night when power demand is usually at its lowest, but there will be a need for increased capacity.
Another issue is what will happen in petroleum. As demand decreases gasoline is likely to get cheaper. As long as there is demand for refined petroleum in some form, gasoline is going to be produced – you can’t just turn a barrel of crude into aviation fuel, you get the whole spectrum of distillates out the other end of the process. There was a time early in the industry when it was an unwanted byproduct, could it be again? If so it will be dirt cheap, continuing to make EVs a challenge in their operating economics. The whole enterprise of EVs will highly dependent on the ability/willingness of various governments to subsidize them.
The other thing seldom mentioned is the effect of this whole idea on the bottom end of society. Those folks cannot afford new electric cars and are buying $2500 beaters (often financing them for $7,995) in order to get to work. Even if they could those folks do not itemize their taxes so would not get any of the deductions. Just like the mortgage interest deduction, the EV subsidy benefits the highest income groups. And, when you think of it, makes the poor subsidize the “free” charging stations that Mr. & Mrs. Tesla are using via their own electric bills. I get the argument that things good for the environment benefit everyone and recognize that there are lots of policy choices to be made, but just join you in pointing out that there are a lot of things about EVs that we are going to have to grapple with going forward.
I’d like to add my opinion on a few things:
1. The “grid” is adding power every day through things like wind and solar. California used to have fairly frequent brownouts and some blackouts when I still lived there, my understand is those are a thing of the past and that the state is actually PAYING neighboring states to offload some of the excess energy that is being produced.
2. While the effect of tax credits is contentious, the Colorado one is NOT dependent on income. Until last year it was also applicable to used vehicles. So if you don’t have a Colorado tax obligation and purchased a new electric vehicle, you get a cash check back after filing a zero tax due return. The current federal incentive does require a tax obligation towards which it is applied. Yes, credits etc differ by locality. But again, I don’t think that one can really argue that oil is not subsidized either in various forms.
3. The first mass market Leaf was introduced in the US for the 2011 model year. Very few other 2011 model cars are down at the $2500 level beater level unless they are REALLY beat. Most of those beaters are quite a bit older. I think a used Leaf will actually be at the $2500 within the next decade and possibly by 2020 for some of them. Going back to the early days, not every one could afford a Model T either. Some people still rode their (used) horse.
4. Maybe our grid SHOULD be upgraded. This country does not have top-flight infrastructure. We tent to “invest” in stuff and then let it wither to the point of failure. It’s like buying a car and never changing the oil.
5. Why would private enterprise need to provide charging stations at a long-term loss? If more people use less gas and drive more electric cars gas stations can become power stations and charge for it. Tesla is not giving away their power anymore for the Model 3 either. Gas stations supposedly don’t make money on the gas either, the money is made by selling soda and chips and other junk.
Aside from all that, I’m not a huge Tesla fan personally, somehow I let Mr. Musk rub me the wrong way but will concede he has some very major achievements under his belt (and I am being very modest with that). Toyota on the other is doing what will they think will make them the biggest profit in at least the medium term, as is their job being a public company and all. While they may not be at the forefront of EV tech currently I am sure they have the know-how and could enter the market at any time of their choosing.
All valid points. I think the biggest issue with the power grid is the need for some kind of battery-style storage buffer for power. A BIL who works in power plant engineering points out that powering up a big plant takes hours and hours. Wind and sun comes and goes pretty rapidly in some parts of the country, so the power plant has to run on the assumption that the output of wind and solar sources will be negligible. Otherwise a sudden appearance of clouds or a dropoff in wind will leave the system with a shortage of power, which is bad. The alternative is that much of that solar and wind power goes to waste when plants are running as they need to be. Neither is a good solution. The ability to store even 3 hours of power would be a huge boon to the system, allowing us to make full use of those added sources. I believe I read that Musk has some ideas on this.
I should add that none of those “clean” energy sources is economically feasible without subsidy. The system is still almost fully dependent on old fashioned dirty sources for almost all of our electricity.
JPC: if you’re only speculating that “Musk has some ideas on this” regarding energy storage batteries, and not educated on Tesla’s huge energy storage business and the impact it’s having on new renewable energy source plants (mostly solar), I strongly suggest you expand your reading via a site like Electrek.com for a week or two. You might be surprised at the rapid changes taking place in energy production and storage.
https://electrek.co/
I had a vague understanding that one of Musk’s ventures involves energy storage, but that’s as deep as my knowledge goes on how far along he is on the venture.
We’re getting a bit off topic here, but for the record, wind and solar installed cost have dropped considerably and are now actually cheaper than coal and even natural gas. Here’s a report with figures and references.
The intermittency problem is real. It’s why I personally consider nuclear power to be very “green”, because it’s carbon-free and runs nearly all the time. But regardless of that, wind and solar are getting integrated in larger grids where the energy can be transported from where it’s excess to where it’s needed.
Battery storage is emerging as a good answer for utilities to store wind and solar power. Tesla’s leveraging their investments in battery production to go after this in a big way. Here for example is an example of an 80 MWh facility Tesla’s building in California. They’re building a 129 MWh storage facility in Australia.
There are some very good trends emerging that we’ll see develop over the next few years.
To accommodate increasing demand and needed upgrades to the grid, electricity rates are increasing. Northern Illinois is a case in point: ComEd, our provider (a government regulated monopoly like all U.S. utilities) has raised rates 8% this year, with an additional 5% mandated in 2018. That is not due to higher energy costs, but rather “capacity costs” which means guaranteeing the power will be available during peak demand periods. I think energy storage solutions would fall into that category, and will cost money. Utility customers will pay for it, plain and simple. Also, at least for ComEd bills, less than half the cost of each monthly bill is for the electrons used–the bulk is “delivery costs” and “fees.” All of which can and will rise. Most consumers will not be able to simply “unplug” from the grid and produce their own power, so they will continue to be at the mercy of the public utilities.
But wait, you say, the government regulates them and would never let them charge too much. Not so fast–utilities expect a Soviet-style captive market and guaranteed returns, so they will demand, and get, whatever price increases they deem necessary to maintain that status quo. ComEd’s parent company is Excelon, which operates the local nuclear power plants–and you guessed it, Excelon expects a specific (and profitable) rate of return to operate the plants. If higher cost green energy sources like solar and wind are used (or mandated), those additional costs (and the corresponding guaranteed profits) will simply be passed right along to the end users.
Adding fuel to the fire will be the reality that the Europeans are suddenly waking up to–what happens to all the gas tax revenue when people buy less gas? It’s also an issue here in Illinois, where the gas tax is 20 cents per gallon, and believe me, the state wants that money. If gas consumption drops and electricity consumption rises, that tax burden will be added in a nanosecond to the utility bills (though never removed from the gas costs).
As for gas stations becoming profitable power stations, that is challenging too. The stations would buy their power from the local utility monopoly, unless they opted to spend the money to generate and store their own power on site (that’s what Musk’s Solar City is hoping will happen, though that’s challenging in climates like Illinois). How much could they charge for an electric fill-up, and how long would that take? Right now, I can add 400 miles of range to my Jeep in about 3 minutes at a gas station. Adding 170 miles to a Tesla at a Supercharger station takes 30 minutes. Futurist gleefully predict that the time needed to charge-up will plunge thanks to technological advances–to 15 minutes! I guess that would allow you time to buy a lot of snacks. So I’m not sure that the service station model is ready to transfer, in the foreseeable future, to charging stations.
More likely, EV owners will expect plugs in every parking space wherever they go. Who funds that? Property owners? Local governments? Whoever pays for those plugs will ultimately expect an ROI for providing the convenient power source. The utility companies won’t pay, though they will happily gobble up the increased revenues and guaranteed profits.
So consumers will be on the hook to pay for the EV revolution at the end of the day, once again proving there is no such thing as a free lunch.
GN:So consumers will be on the hook to pay for the EV revolution at the end of the day, once again proving there is no such thing as a free lunch.
As they always have, for meaningful environmental improvements. And always will. Got any better ideas as to how to substantially reduce CO2 emissions from automobiles? Or maybe you don’t care about that. I do; a lot. it scares me about the future our kids and grand-kids will face. Never mind the cost protecting our coastal cities from rising sea levels.
Ultimately, that’s what this is all about, as well as improving air pollution in cities, although that’s more of a European/China problem. Debating this issue with those that are not concerned about AGW is a waste of time.
Which is precisely why we have a no politics guideline here at CC. This is essentially a political issue. And no one’s ever going to change someone else’s mind, right? We all hear and read what reinforces our intrinsic inclinations. So let’s leave it out of these pages.
One last thought: remember how the Big Three cried and cried and said that the ever-tightening emission regs in the 70s and 80s was going to drastically increase the price of cars and create an economic calamity? Never happened…
BTW, US average residential electric prices have risen from 0.1065/KWh in 2007 to 0.1255 in 2016. That’s a slight reduction, in real (inflation adjusted) dollar terms. Local prices are not indicative of national trends.
GN – My point re: service stations was relative to this point in time or at least the next few years. As I stated in the original post, for many/most people including myself, an electric makes potential perfect sense as a not-the-only-car. So if I take a long or longer than my electric range trip, sure, using the gasoline model makes sense due to the fast “recharge rate”. However for day to day driving with the possibility to plug it in every night or whenever it’s at home, doing so would ensure a full charge every morning. Going to the power station would only occur when out and about and if there was an unforeseen circumstance or a trip nearing the end of the range.
If I had a gasoline hookup in my garage, I would never go to the gas station either unless again, I was out and about and had used up my range…The closest analog is people mixing their own Biodiesel a few years ago.
This is the most common argument I see in opposition to electrics though, as if the only option to charge is to do it away from home and everyone would “run out” away from home or drives hundreds of miles every day.
I’m not saying every gas station would or should have chargers at first. First, one brand would add some, then as demand increases more would add them, and so on until most stations have a dozen or whatever of them. They’d do it to make money, just like with gasoline. But the beauty of a charger is that it CAN be installed in front of Taco Bell or Whole Foods or Napa Auto Parts or wherever as opposed to a gasoline pump. Either way, it’s not like you buy gas and pay the wholesale or the production cost of it either. If your local kWh cost is 12cents per at home, then I would expect that a business such as Shell or Chevron or whoever charges that plus whatever markup they want. Just like gas it would become competitive and shoppers could look at the prices and decide where to fill up. And it would change depending on locale. Not every municipality has the same rates nor do they always only have one provider, just like gasoline.
Perhaps we are headed for a world where every parking place at every business has a plug and a card-reading meter.
Paul, I am very open to all perspectives on this topic, and I think the debate is important, though I will not beat it to death on here. I have tried not to be political in my comments on this issue, and I reference widely available and reputable sources to make my points.
I do know that transformation costs money. Some will make it and some will pay for it. I don’t think that is a biased or politically loaded statement.
I have never written anything on this site that has in any way challenged the need or rationale for making these changes, but I do think it is fair to comment on how the transformation is progressing, and why.
I’ve also never defended the Big Three’s behavior on emissions, safety and fuel economy regulations. But adhering to the requirements did cost money and did impact the market, with different players responding in different ways with varying degrees of success.
As for utility rates remaining flat nationally since 2007, much of that can be attributed to reductions in the cost of natural gas during that period, as it has dropped by about half, give or take. And of course I know that my utility rates are not representative of the whole country. But that doesn’t mean that what happens in Illinois can’t happen elsewhere.
Pumped-hydro storage is the most cost-effective solution that we have now for our energy grid, and it is already in use in this country. For example, at Grand Coulee Dam in WA, they have massive pumps which can pump water back up behind the dam. So any excess power on the grid (such as produced by solar and wind) can be stored in the form of potential energy upstream of the dam. This is also used NE of San Francisco.
Climate change and national energy independence are the reasons most advanced countries are incentivizing EV sales.
In the US the federal tax credit is well known, but not well known is that the credit is phased out once a manufacturer has sold 200,000 vehicles, of any model. After 200K, the tax credit is 50%
for 6 months, then 25% for six months, then it’s gone. Projections are that Tesla’s phaseout of the federal tax credit will start in the first half of 2018. Nissan Leaf federal tax credits will phase out soon too.
Why the phaseout? Because the tax credits were designed to jump-start EV production, which they’ve succeeded to do. They were never meant to permanently subsidize EVs.
The grid and the charging stations will grow as demand grows, simply from the profit motive. So far the demand has been met. A Level 2 charging station is a 10A to 20A 220V load, comparable to a clothes dryer or electric stove. Nobody got anxious about whether the grid could handle them, they just built out capacity over time.
Finally, let’s see what Tesla’s profits look like in five years, once they’ve had a full product line out and shipping in volume for awhile. Tech startups that really make things (unlike Amazon) take that kind of time frame for the big profits to start coming in.
GN, Your comment is essentially the stereotypical anti-EV rant that I’ve been reading for almost ten years now, and have debated endlessly, which means I’m rather tired of debating it in detail.
In a nutshell: The direct and indirect subsidies the petroleum industry gets is staggeringly huge. And there’s no sign of it coming down, thanks to their effective political power. It makes the temporary (and soon to end, in the case of Tesla and Nissan) tax credits look like chump change in comparison.
If you believe in AGW (if not, might as well stop right now), then it makes huge sense for governments to subsidize or mandate technologies that can and will make a material difference. An EV running on 100% coal-produced power still emits less CO2 than a comparable gas car, and coal’s precentage of the US power production profile is in the minority and dropping. In some parts of the country like here in the PNW, almost all of our power is hydro, so it certainly makes lots of sense to encourage EV use to take advantage of that.
Don’t worry about the grid. It has the spare capacity right now to charge a massive amount of EVs at night, which realistically is where most charging does and will take place. And since energy efficiency is constantly improving in all other aspects of our homes and businesses, the grid operators are thrilled at the idea of selling the extra capacity to EVs. And most of the new capacity being added is renewable, which really fulfills the maximum benefit of EVs.
Tesla’s financial statements are required to conform to GAAP. There’s no difference in how various expenses are accounted for.
They are in a period of very high growth, so it would be obvious that they are using their funds for the rapid build-up of facilities and infrastructure.
The educated view was that the Model 3 would not be mass produced until late 2017. Musk pushing up early production was classic Musk; he has a long track record of making projections that are too ambitious; it’s how he keeps his employees motivated, among other things. Let’s comeback and talk about how the Model 3 is being built in January 2018. They’ve been through “production hell” before, and always found their way out of it.
Enough. Debating Tesla haters is a waste of time. Yet if you go back in time, the haters have been saying essentially the same thing since the beginning (“they’re never going to build Model..”.; “they’re going to fail”, etc.) and yet here they are, meeting their sales goals for the S and X, which are running some 30+% higher than last year. And then there’s their energy storage business, which is exploding. And…
I’m quite aware that Tesla’s long term success is certainly not guaranteed. But they keep making fools of their naysayers (and shorts), year-in, year-out. Watching the drama unfold in real time is the best thing going on in the auto business for a long time. I’m loving every minute of it. 🙂
One thing you and I absolutely agree on is that Tesla is fascinating to watch.
I definitely am a Tesla skeptic (as I am skeptical of virtually all businesses) and I do think it is important to challenge company assertions, no matter what company you are talking about. I am neither a Tesla hater nor a Tesla lover, but am fascinated by human behavior, how and why behavioral change happens and how markets and consumers react to change, including what factors they consider to make their arguments and what they leave out.
Tesla adheres to GAAP, but that doesn’t mean they mirror other auto companies in reporting R&D. Using the methodology as deployed by Ford, GM and others, Tesla’s gross margin would look different, just as Ford et-als would look different if they followed Tesla’s methodology.
As for keeping employees motivated, firing 400 to 700 workers (1% to 2% of the total company workforce) in October during the intense Model 3 ramp-up is probably not the best way to ensure high morale and team spirit. Believe me, I will be closely watching how many Model 3s are being built in January, as well as how satisfied customers are will their Model 3s.
I assumed you’d be irritated by me daring to critique Tesla, hence the comment in my first post about not properly worshipping at Musk’s altar. I guess I also shouldn’t succumb to the false prophets at Nissan, Toyota, Honda, GM and BMW who are also contributing to the EV revolution (and in many cases were before Elon Musk even joined Tesla).
As for heaping praise on a start-up that changed the world, I’ll go with Ford. FoMoCo was also profitable in its first year and soon figured out the intricacies of mass production to scale to phenomenal levels. The future will show us whether Musk’s ventures will deliver similar transformation over the long-term.
FoMoCo was also profitable in its first year and soon figured out the intricacies of mass production to scale to phenomenal levels.
I can’t leave that one alone. The differences in building cars between 1903 or so and 2017 are so vast, that any comparison is meaningless. The reality is that profit margins on cars back then were insanely high, 100% and more. It was like the PC business in the early days, when there were 100 or more PC-clone manufacturers, and one could do that profitably on a very small scale.
Car companies would have wild swings in their profits back then; if a company could half-way decently utilize their facilities, big profits were on order. It was the gold-rush days, which ended soon enough. And flushed out 100s of small car makers, just like the PC-cone makers.
And of course thta explains why Henry could constantly drop the price of the T; he was the first to realize that cars could “scale”, to use a popular Silicon valley term. And still make obscene profits while doing it, based on the vast volumes. Those kind of profit margins on cars are long lost to the mist of times.
And what did car makers pay their workers back then? Benefits? Simply no point of comparison.
I definitely am a Tesla skeptic (as I am skeptical of virtually all businesses)
I guess you don’t invest in any stocks then. 🙂
But thanks for that clarification; it helps to know who I’m debating with.
Haha you know full well I invest in stocks and companies, and that is why I am a professional skeptic.
Also, thank you for the debate and for this site. I can’t tell you how much I appreciate it, as one of the best aspects of CC is that you can have a reasoned, thoughtful, respectful and thought provoking online debate. I wish we had more of that in our world, and I really enjoy it here, whether the topic is Audi’s design language or significant, weighty and world-changing issues like EV adoption.
Having a close community of car enthusiasts with a broad array of backgrounds and interests and opinions is priceless.
You can’t diminish what Henry Ford accomplished just because he lived in a different era and faced different obstacles and opportunities. Henry was as canny in taking advantage of his market situation as Elon seemingly is with his. Ford made money from his customers, Musk from his investors and government benefactors–neither approach is painless.
I’m not diminishing HF the slightest. I’m pointing out that the circumstances are profoundly different. HF could not replicate today what he did then. The early days of a new technology/industry offers unique opportunities. And business was conducted very differently generally. Back then, a corporation was started with capital (but generally no debt) sufficient to get it up and running quickly, and to return a dividend to the shareholders every year.
The only way Ford could do what he did, and expand so rapidly, out of retained earnings was because of the high profit margins that were then built into the prices of cars. And cars were very expensive in the 00’s. That environment is long gone.
I’m loving the excitement too, obviously. Cars are changing fast again, which is endlessly fascinating. And 14-year-old Tesla could very well be the first new US automaker to actually survive in the long run since Walter Chrysler in 1925. The cars themselves give us plenty to talk about here at CC.
I’m open to the idea that there will be a mix of different powered vehicles in the national fleet. People will buy what they like, and that fits their needs. At the County parking lot where I work, there are twelve electric charging stations available. They seem to be full every day. Parking and charging is supposed to limited to four hours, although I don’t know if that is being enforced yet. The situation might get tighter when more EVs are looking to charge and not finding an available station.
Since most middle class families are are already multiple vehicle owners, the idea that an electric could be used primarily for daily short range commuting and errands is reasonable. Like many suburban families that bought smaller compact cars to use around town, saving the big vehicle for longer out of town and cross country runs.
The petroleum situation is interesting because it doesn’t seem like the supply is really as limited as we were once led to believe. It seems that countries all over the world are in a race to develop whatever petroleum resources they have before it’s use becomes obsolete. Canada is trying to develop and market their oil shale deposits and Russia and other countries are striving to exploit their deposits. I know that the issue is the CO2 emissions of ICEs. However the continued availability and low price of gasoline will give the EV industry a lot of competition for the near future. While the automakers have produced many high mileage, lower emission vehicles, the low cost of gas makes the use of large vehicles practical for many consumers.
Besides lower emission vehicles there has to be some kind of change in our urban design. Lower cost housing is being built so far away from urbanized job centers. This is causing many workers to endure a 150 mile round trip commute every day. That’s the commute many of my younger co workers face. This isn’t really a CC topic though.
I’m always happy to see more alt-power choices in the market. And there’s certainly a buzz about EVs now. But while pure EVs are advancing towards practicality, let’s not ignore the excellent, proven hybrid and plug-in hybrid alternatives. My new car, a Ford C-Max Energi, gets up to 700 miles per tank of easily available fossil fuel, achieving MPGs in the high 40s. My overnight charge gives me my first 20 miles of everyday driving in pure EV mode, so if I drive as little as Jim K, I’d rarely even take a sip of that.
Over the first 4000 miles, it’s given me 65 mpg overall, or a fuel cost of under a nickel per mile. From a car that costs $8k less, and still earns me a $9000 tax credit. A proven car, designed for Europe and built in America. Why would I want this Nissan? To brag that I’ve stopped buying gas? You live in Colorado, Jim. We both plug into the dirtiest grid in the nation. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, any 35 mpg gas car matches an EV for carbon emissions. So my plug-in hybrid is more environmentally friendly when it’s unplugged!
Where do I start? The Ford C-Max Energi does NOT sticker at $22000 ($8000 less than the Nissan).
I found the chart you reference on page 12 of http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/Cleaner-Cars-from-Cradle-to-Grave-full-report.pdf
It’s a few years old (it says some info dates back to 2014) but for Colorado, yes the 35mog equivalent is as stated. For the overall US it says 65mpg, for most of the west coast it goes up to 85-90mpg.
You should have just gotten a Nissan Versa and gotten the same 35mpg for even less money.
I’m almost regretting writing this post, with commenters cherry-picking information….
What I like about electrics is the reduced complexity and maintenance. Your car (like my current fleet) still needs oil changes and everything else every gas-powered car needs…
OK, I got the price differential wrong. But I bet you can get much more dicker from your sticker with an end-of-the-model C-Max than with the brand-spankin’-new Nissan. In SE trim, the Ford will be a cheaper vehicle and a more versatile one.
“Reduced complexity” for you is equivalent to reduced content and cost, from the manufacturer’s point of view. For me, having the use of both electricity and a gas engine is the best of all possible worlds. You can use the watts for efficient city driving, and the gas over the long hauls, while capturing regen braking in either mode. My car’s gas engine is unboosted and understressed, and only seems to operate less than half the miles I drive. I’m sure I can keep up with its 10,000 mile oil changes.
It takes a special kind of marketing to sell the idea that less is more. You seem convinced.
Getting the price differential wrong is kind of a fairly big deal.
However, you can probably get an even better deal on an “end-of-the-model” 2017 Leaf though, right? Ford wasn’t throwing money at the CMax in its first month either.
If Ford came out with a CMAX “Pure” electric with a range of 150 miles and no gasoline engine and were to do so for less money than your car (due to perhaps NOT having an IC engine and having a small enough (i.e. cheap enough) battery that would lower the sticker but still supply an adequate range, I’ll bet people would buy it as well. The Focus Electric for example is interesting, too bad the range is so low. However, for some users it seems to work just fine. Conversely a CMax that was IC only would likely be cheaper as well and fill some other use cases very well also.
“Reduced complexity” does NOT mean it’s necessarily cheaper for the manufacturer in this case if the battery is big enough as it’s likely the largest component by cost and the cost is almost directly related to the size/capacity thereof. A Nissan Leaf or Ford C-Max with “X” range will be cheaper than the same exact car with “X x 2” range with the same number of parts except for the size of the battery. No change in complexity but a change in cost for the manufacturer. This is probably why you have 20 miles of range. Ford could likely easily give it 100 miles of range but there’s be an even larger battery cost involved.
Look, I’m not interested in debating you. I’m glad your CMax is working out for you, I myself think it’s an interesting car, I’ve looked into it for myself. I also like the Volt, they are both interesting as stop-gap measures, but think neither would exist if battery tech was more advanced and/or cheaper. If you re-read my the article I think I’m pretty clear in stating that the Leaf and others like it will work great for certain use cases and not for others. If you only have one car as you appear to then no, a solely electric car (besides a Tesla due to range and charge options) is probably not the best choice.
I’m merely presenting an additional (new) option for the marketplace that I had the opportunity to check out.
I’m not sure I quite understand the last line though. If you’re just trying to be rude, then OK, whatever. But having a product that fulfills the same need for its intended market and does it using less parts or resources, then that’s a win for everyone. I’m obviously not “convinced” enough yet as there isn’t one in my driveway yet.
Colorado does have relatively dirty energy, you were correct in that. It’s cleaner today than it was yesterday and that trend is continuing here as well as across the nation (and the world). Some people just prefer to not use gasoline, some don’t want to support Big Oil, some like the silence of all-electric, some like the reduced moving parts, some like “new” technologies, some generate their own power on their own rooftops or in their own fields and want to be able to use it for more than just their A/C and lighting.
Not that you said anything of the sort but I think I myself can hardly be accused of being a “green-weenie” by any means, not with a combined total of 15.3 liters of displacement in my driveway spread among a total of two drivers and no solar on my roof or other clean energy whatsoever. Currently the economics of solar don’t make sense to me where I am, it would however if I held a more strident ecological view that valued en ecological statement over an economic one..
I do, however, think I have an open mind and am willing to look at options in a rational manner, both pro and con without just cherry-picking or espousing one viewpoint to the exclusion of another. So far here at CC I’ve looked into and written about regular cars (owned lots of them), hybrid cars (owned), pure electric cars (considered), natural gas powered cars (prior car-share program member), the Bay Area’s casual carpool scheme (user from both sides), and medium range commuter buses (user). I probably forgot about some others.