Note: Tesla production projected (conservatively) for 2023 and 2024
The many parallels between Henry Ford and Elon Musk have been chronicled many times. Self-made men, pioneering new concepts in automobiles and their production, involved in numerous other business activities, megalomania, egomania, highly sensitive to criticism, anti-union, media-darlings, etc..
The Model T and Tesla also roughly shared the same time period and trajectory in terms of their production exactly 100 years ago. I was curious to see just how close those numbers paralleled; sure enough, they are currently mirroring each other almost perfectly (’21 & ’22). Tesla’s production for 2023 is projected at 1.8 M, but Musk has said it might be as high as 2.0 M. That’s almost exactly what the T did in 1923, 2.01 million. But that was the T’s all-time peak, before it fell back to earth. Meanwhile Tesla is still ramping up production at two of its newest plants, and rumors of more new plants are in the air.
The Tesla Model Y is already the highest selling vehicle in the world by revenue (and profit), and it is projected (by Musk) to be the highest selling car by volume in 2023, topping the perennial #1 Corolla, about 1.1 million. That’s still not as high as the Model T in 1923, but one could well argue that the Model 3 and Y are just body variants on the same platform, as were many body variants on the T chassis.
Daily Beast: Is Elon Musk Deliberately Modeling Himself After Henry Ford?
Musk and California governor Newsom put aside their differences at least in public the other day for an announcement about Tesla’s new engineering HQ which will occupy a former Hewlett-Packard Packard site in Palo Alto. In the press conference Musk mention that the Fremont Tesla plant, ex-NUMMI and before that GM, is the highest output auto plant in North America at over 600K units annually. Take that Detroit/Mexico! 😀 Seriously, people stereotype Tesla as a toy for rich Californians, though obviously the numbers (price and sales) show that’s not true, but the return of large-scale manufacturing to this area is something this Bay Area boy is most impressed by.
Once a stereotype takes hold in the public mind, it tends to stick despite evidence to the contrary.
I used to think it was only city greenies who bought Teslas, but the other day I saw three within ten seconds, here in my smallish country town. They’re getting to be like VW Beetles, in that they’re so common I don’t pay them any attention.
Can’t think when I last saw a Prius. Wonder what the next Must-Have car will be?
Don’t discount the lowly Prius ~ many of the first generation ones were used as taxis and I’m still seeing ex taxi Prius’ as daily commuters, Barrio bombers and Ghetto hoopties .
I’m waiting to see ten year old electric trucks that are beat to death yet still being used as work rigs .
-Nate
Amazing .
Musk must be doing something right to sell this many units .
-Nate
The cars aren’t nearly as bad as the internet “journalists” who don’t get test cars, usually can’t afford to buy their own, often have never even driven one, and whose publications get zero (and therefore can’t lose) ad dollars from Tesla, would have you believe in many of their clickbait stories. Perfect? No. Quite good in the aggregate and increasingly a good value for money? Absolutely.
The Supercharger network is also a powerful sales tool to anyone concerned about range anxiety or who has experienced the rest of the industry’s “infrastructure”, not that the vast majority of people actually need to use it, given most charging is done at home. Bafflingly no other manufacturer has seen fit to try to replicate it, the roadmap to do so exists, instead relying on third parties whose interests do not necessarily align and governments to apply the usual government good sense and logic in everything they do (/s) to be the force that makes their efforts successful. Good luck with that.
I’m seeing more and more ‘two Tesla’ households, based on driveway occupants.
You make good points Jim .
OTOH, I don’t expect to have an electric vehicle until I’m forced to .
I remember when Tesla articles were full of how poorly they were made (panel gaps etc.) and how they’d randomly catch fire etc. ~ just like ICE’s n the early days as they worked to improved them .
Me, I’m still rattling / wheezing on down the road in obsolete klunkers and loving every minute .
Whenever I pass a Tesla show room I stop in and sit behind the driver’s seat, it’s better spacing than most will think .
Nate
They aren’t for everyone or every situation. But of course that still leaves lots of other people. To each their own, I’m sure some people still ride horses… Some people are taking those obsolete clunkers and transplanting EV stuff into them, makes for some interesting creations. You seem quite open-minded, or at least aren’t just taking everything you read at face value, good for you.
It doesn’t appear that even after 100 or so years of experience that other manufacturers have made regular vehicles fireproof either…I didn’t see this particular one on the news for some reason, maybe it’s not that rare or newsworthy.
Lots of cars catch on fire no doubt. Had one of my own go up in flames a few months ago. The issue here is more the battery. Many lithium chemestries are incredibly hard to put out and burn very hot. Most of the time the only option is to let them burn themselves out, unless you have 10’s of thousands of gallons to continually flood the fire.
Tesla has started to use Lithium Iron chemistry recently which is safer around fire.
I don’t disagree, I do believe that most of the fires are the result of accidents that pierce the battery, kind of like a gas tank can get pierced and the car explode or whatever. If there is enough time to get out, great. Not everyone makes it out of a normal car accident and fire either. It doesn’t help if you’re drunk and demonstrating the car to a neighbor on your residential street and ram into a tree at high speed, hardly the car’s own fault, yet I rarely see retractions or explanations that are given the same prominent above the fold space when an actual determination is later made (Oh, the doctor was in fact not driving the car from the back seat using autopilot etc, our hysterical headline was completely false after all…)
The majority of them (Tesla ones anyway) aren’t just randomly combusting in a garage – unlike some older Chevy Bolts for example and multiple Hyundai, Kia, Ford and other normal cars over the years for various different reasons. If any car catches fire in an attached garage, usually the whole house ends up a loss, irrespective of the water situation.
If one goes up in flames on the freeway after hitting something, who really cares, let it burn itself out if there’s no water nearby or do what you can to minimize collateral damage to others nearby. Or respond with three firetrucks instead of one, I don’t know.
Tesla is using LFP in some cars due to the raw material requirements and cost reasons, there are some other downsides to it as well, they aren’t using them due to a concern about fires.
Gotta be open minded or I’d stop learning, I crave knowledge and don’t fear it like so many do .
-Nate
The supercharger network is a good sales tool no doubt about it. But from a business perspective, it makes less and less sense.
Tesla had to do it because the network didn’t exist. Now automakers view it as a potential liability in a downturn. Lots of money tied up in something outside the core business and a lot of money spent that could be used for R and D.
Looking back might some automaker have regretted that? maybe a little, given the reliability problems of some CCS chargers. Right now with Tesla opening up stations to other brands and CCS stations being built rapidly it again makes little sense to start now. I have to assume in the next couple years they will figure out how to make a CCS station reliable. Ford has already started putting pressure on the networks to do so. My understanding is CCS has become very reliable in Europe over the last year so it seems like it’s just a matter of time.
Tesla stations in Europe are all CCS (as are Tesla cars over there) and don’t have issues so the reliability exists if you want to have it. I do not know why the multitude of other companies can’t or won’t make their stations reliable, easy to use, and plentiful but that’s how it seems to be, at least here in the US.
Teslas plans for “opening” up their stations apparently amounts to about 7500 individual “pumps”, of which about 4000 are “destination chargers” at hotels and such – those are level 2 chargers and actually almost alwys already have CCS capability for other cars, so little change there. The remaining 3000 or so will apparently be one or two chargers per Tesla Supercharger installation, most of which have at least eight chargers, aren’t generally designed for pull-through application (such as needed with a trailer or inconveniently located charge port), and have pretty short hoses that work with a Tesla’s port in the extreme rear corner of the vehicle, not so great with many others especially the front fender mounted ones. Tesla may well decide that other manufacturer’s cars might as well be a bigger profit center too, i.e. perhaps charge a different rate. Tesla does now often mark up the energy price at the pump even to Tesla owners, but usually it is far less than the other third-party vendors charge for theirs.
There are plenty of stories by pro-EV outlets that aren’t Tesla-focused specifically detailing the issues frequently experienced.
“The Atlantic” had a very good and interesting story about the new government charging subsidies and how they might affect Tesla and the charging infrastucture situation in general, it was in my news feed the other day but I can’t seem to find it right now…Interesting were the costs projections, Teslas cost per installation is a fraction of a third-party’s cost on a per-pump basis as well as the elegance of their solution in regard to connector, energy supply, payment etc. It’s like a Camry (i.e. it just works), vs a cart behind a donkey (clunky, stubborn, won’t go when needed, etc).
But of course these chargers really are only used for longer distance driving or people who don’t have a solution at home. The majority of EV owners currently have home-based chargers and most people don’t drive very long distances regularly or very often.
The initiatives touted by some manufacturers that they will be or will require dealers installing chargers at their dealerships are a bit of a joke, seeing as they are almost all level 2 chargers, meaning they can charge at about 35 or so miles per hour of charge (same as most home installations, great for overnight but not otherwise). That’s fairly useless for anyone on a trip during the day or going somewhere.
Tesla may have one other advantage, which is an echo of the old VW Beetle days. They have a readily identifiable and slightly quirky appearing product, that can generate sales momentum based on a visible installed base and people wanting to “keep up with the Joneses”.
Beyond that, the enterprise is really “life-or-death” focused on the EV product, without distractions or considerations of any ICE product in-house. I occasionally get the sense that other manufacturers, with their product lines containing both EV and ICE products, may be compromising on EV products due to internal politics or bean-counting (like internally generated product compromise has ever happened before/sarc).
Good point on the Tesla shape being instantly recognizable. Similar to the Beetle and 2nd generation Prius identificable shapes, there’s no mistaking the Model 3 and Y’s duckbill nose.
Aren’t the European CCS stations of a different style, i.e., CCS2, whereas those in the US are CCS1?
Yes, not the same CCS, but both are far clunkier and less elegant (heavier, larger, more difficult to use for some) than the US-Tesla system.
My point was that the Tesla Superchargers in Europe are CCS and are as reliable as the non-CCS Tesla Superchargers in the US. In other words there is no good reason that the third-party CCS chargers over here should be by nature less reliable, yet for some reason they are often broken, not intuitive to use, and tend to be temperamental.
I do not know if the third party CCS chargers in Europe are any better than the ones over here.
However, the narrative over here is rapidly trending towards one of third party chargers in general not being very good/reliable which isn’t helping EV adoption and the manufacturers are basically saying it’s not their problem, when it very much is their problem if someone doesn’t buy their car because of it. Someone who has never had an EV might not realize the issues, but as soon as you have one and have to deal with issues, you become very educated on the subject, won’t make the same mistake twice and likely will be advising others on the subject as well.
Somewhat related are the disparity in J1772 (Level 2) plug handles. While the plugs themselves are the same, the handle designs are all over the place, specifically, the retention clip. Some of them are installed ‘into’ the plug part and seem much more secure, while others (Clipper Creek) are just sort of exposed along the top.
The problem with the latter is they’re very easy to break (I suspect vandalism).
On top of that, unlike gas fillier nozzles which seem to be universally made of metal, I’m going to guess that due to the conductivity properties, metal J1772 plugs are out of the question and they’ll always be made of plastic.
Here’s the Tesla one. This is my home charger (Tesla branded, was less expensive and simpler to deal with/setup than third party ones at the time). Simpler to handle than the CCS connectors, which in fairness, if you can handle a gas pump you can probably handle any of these, yet this is so simple we don’t worry about our children plugging the car in when we ask them to. The Supercharger ones are basically the same from a usability/design standpoint, the wand is perhaps constructed of slightly more heavy-duty material and the cord is thicker/heavier as the power is greater and it’s apparently liquid-cooled. I’ve used the CCS ones, this is better. You push it in, there’s a slight resistance when the port meets the connector and you push in and feel the positive engagement happen. To unlock you push the little button on the wand, CCS ones usually have a more “physical” button or latch to deal with. At the Supercharger your car’s screen then tells you what’s going on as does the Tesla app on your phone, just like when it’s at home; and you can control it through either to start, stop, or whatever. Payment is automatic through your account. It’s seamless and while I sound like a shill for Tesla which I am not, it just works. Why, for once, can’t an industry just admit one way is better and go with it.
The below video is 9 seconds long, I’m the unseen star. When I’m done plugging it in and the video ends I walk away and it starts charging at whatever time I have it set up for (10pm in our case), or I could touch one button and it would start right then.
https://youtu.be/GcoVp1mSp6c
Do you remember the old iMac commercials from a couple of decades ago showing how easy it is to get online with it and the implication is how much easier it is than dealing/installing with various PC bits and pieces? He plugs the iMac into the wall. And it just works.
https://youtu.be/2iyMf3tlKpU
That’s what the Tesla charging system (Superchargers, at home stuff) reminds me of. It just works.
Tesla s sold by a perception of prestige and rich folks forgave the poor build quality because of the cars high tec. Now they are becoming main stream I don’t know it main stream buyers will put up with the lack of quality, poor dealers and lack of charging points .Hell ,some owners are pissed off with the recent discounting policy.
The quality has been just fine on ours for 28,000 miles over 28 or so months, our service center got us in and out within one day when our windshield broke due to a rock strike, sent a tech to our driveway to check one thing physically for a recall, and every other “recall” was a software update that was done over the air on OUR schedule, generally while we slept. We have charging points aplenty, I drove it to Minnesota and back a year ago without issue (1000 miles or so each way through Truck Country USA Midwest), and we charge it every few days in our own garage overnight without issue when the rates are dirt cheap.
That’s just one man’s opinion, yet seems to be shared by the five other owners of the same brand of cars in the immediate neighborhood, some of whom are on their second one, one sold their high-mileage one to another neighbor who has been happily driving it for the last two years. Poor dealers is something we used to deal with when we had mainstream cars, Tesla has no dealers. Every penny I spend there (Zero to date since the purchase) goes right back to the mothership to help fund more products rather than the independent dealer’s sales manager’s boat.
Do you own one? I do. The dealer was fantastic. When my car was ready they gave me a free Uber voucher to pick it up. There was a class on using the cars features. And there was no finance room or Diamond coat paint sealant nonsense. It was the most pleasant car buying experience I ever had.
The car had been reliable over the 4 years I’ve owned it. Only issue was a mouse ate my frunk wring harness and the radio went out. Both fixed with Tesla mobile service. So convenient to have them come to my house to do the service instead of that 8am dealer service nightmare of traditional dealers.
Are my panel gaps perfect. No but I can’t see them when I’m driving so not an issue. Anyway the build quality is a lot better than the cars my parent drive in The 70s and 80s. It’s all nonsense drummed up by journalists looking for eyeballs.
Best feature. Insanely responsive acceleration. Second best feature. Filling up at home and never touching another disgusting pump handle at the crowded gas station. My experience with my EV has been nothing like you are describing.
Tesla’s “poor build quality” is one of those autoblog memes that was true once quite a few years ago, hasn’t been true for a number of years now, but the autobloggers refuse to let it rest and will keep pounding it for a few more decades.
My sister and brother-in-law bought there first EV two weeks ago: A Tesla Model 3 won out over a Mustang Mach-E totally on reliability reports, not helped by the big announcement of Ford’s losses and admission of design errors on the Mustang.
No initial regrets on the decision, although they did find that the Tesla sales channel was a bit odd.
Tesla doesn’t advertise, doesn’t have a PR department and seems not to care what journos think.
To put this in prospective…..
Consider the population of the US in the 1920 was 106M million versus 331M in 2020. I think Henry has a better market penetration plus he had production facilities “all around the world”, not just Germany, US, and China based on tax credits or government waivers.
I do notice one parallel between Henry & Elon….both are “very complicated” persons….no doubt about that!
I don’t believe that Ford had production facilities “all around the world” by 1920 although there were a few in a few countries, but what Ford certainly didn’t have is multiple very well-established 60-120 year old world-wide behemoth companies as competition that continually tout their “expertise” in car building. Every vehicle that Tesla sells is one vehicle that Ford (or another manufacturer) didn’t sell, perhaps making the feat even more impressive. Few people buy a Tesla as a net addition to their household, generally it replaces an existing vehicle.
Henry was competing with others in the new wave ICE world. However, he had the superior product (just like Elon has now) and that allowed him to have market penetration.
Elon’s situation has now morphed into something very similar to Henry. Elon is competing with other EV producers while pursuing the ICE world. Suddenly, there’s even a EV “price war”. Doesn’t sound familiar!! Elon is competing with Chinese producers (BYD) who have a head start, currently out sells him, but not the best. In the US, Ford & GM have gone in whole hog while start ups Lordstown, Rivian & Lucid look iffy at best. In Europe, each continental brand is developing and rollin out its version of EV. Surprise, surprise, The Fiat 500E is a sales success in a market niche not addressed by Elon.
Funny how the auto industry repeats itself 100 years later, Elon included!!
As for Henry, he had Model T production at one time or another in:
Argentina
Australia
Belgium
Brazil
Canada
Chile
Denmark
England
France
Germany
Italy
Mexico
Japan
Spain
South Africa
& the USA
Considering it was the beginning of the 20th century, Henry had an excellent footprint in the “then developed world”.
Ford’s overseas plants were not significant at the time, and more importantly, they were just assembly plants, using the parts shipped from the US.
Essentially all the Ts came from Ford’s Highland Park plant, but then Ford didn’t build most of the bodies then, just the chassis. And needless to say, the T was vastly simpler and more primitive than a modern car.
But yes, Ford’s market penetration was much higher at the time in the US. The parallels only go so far.
I do have to admit Tesla’s sales climb was impressive. 5-6 years ago I looked at their financial reports and figured it would never work. But the investors were believers and it worked. At this point, Tesla is the only maker selling in the US to have volume EV building and selling down. As others mentioned Tesla does alot of things well. They have good range, the superchargers work, and they are quick. They also seem to be doing better at manufacturing than I would have guessed after many early slip-ups.
At this point, I think their biggest liability is Musk, which may have been true of old Henry at several points as well. When he went nuts on twitter this fall sales at Tesla in the US did seem to slip. The price drops did seem to pull them out of that thou. I think Musk was key at making Tesla successful but now if I were a shareholder I would want him gone.
I also think we are going to see other automakers pull more and more EV market share. Here in CT Rivian seems to be really popular with people in the price class, also the New Hyundai and Kia models, lots of those seem to be sharing driveway space with Teslas in expensive neighborhoods.
I think there will be a plateau in demand unless Tesla can move pricing a bit lower in the future.
Pricing is where the Model T analogy could really take hold. Say what you will about Henry’s quirks, he was masterful at constantly improving production methods (unfortunately at the expense of line worker’s health) that continuously lowered the price every, made the Model T a true game changer in advancing the US economy.
Tesla would seem to be in the same enviable position. Dropping the price of the Model 3 (sounds a lot like the Model T, doesn’t it?) so that it becomes just as mainstream and ubiquitous as the Ford could be a real tipping point in US EV adoption.
Don’t claim to be an auto historian, but my memory is that Model T sales fell as competitors unveiled flashier, more powerful models that made the T look old-fashioned. The T changed over time, but not enough to keep up. By focusing so much on ramping up production instead of refreshing/improving his cars (and lowering the cost), is Elon making the same mistake?
*Very* well put Greg ~
The ‘T’ Model Ford was incredibly crude by design but by the mid 1920’s most other cars were faster and more modern .
The ‘A’ model Ford that replaced it was also crude but was a far better car in daily use .
Some other cars (I’m thinking Whippet here) were nice but so delicate few survive .
-Nate
Instead of spending the money on external refreshes, Tesla is constantly improving the cars in other ways, most of all in making them lower cost to produce, hence the ability to cut their prices, which they just did to a very significant extent.
^^^ This. Tesla’s may look unchanged over time, but they’re mechanically constantly evolving in a way the Model T never really did. And not only getting better, but cheaper to build hence more profitable.
An interesting comparison. A couple of other differences to what has been mentioned above – The Model T made its volume on a price far lower than most of the competition (certainly in its fattest years of sales) while Tesla has made its volume with cars priced fairly high, with the brand still having a luxury or prestige halo. On the other hand, 2M cars in 2023 is nowhere near the achievement of 2M cars in 1923 when the driving population was far, far smaller.
These numbers surprise me – but maybe they would not if I lived elsewhere. Here in the midwest, Teslas are no longer a rare sight, but they are certainly not seen in Toyota numbers.
There are of course many differences; the point was not to assume there weren’t, just the coincidence of this happening exactly 100 years apart.
FWIW, with the latest price cuts, Tesla’s M3 is now $5k cheaper than the median US car.
In 1920, I’d also assume that the cars that were available were perhaps not all affordable nor of consistent quality. 2 Million cars seems quite good when competing against entrenched and presumably high-quality products, many of which (such as the Corolla) are available at much lower prices and considering that the sales numbers just a decade ago were about 23,000.
Thirty years ago you might have said Here in the midwest, Toyotas are no longer a rare sight but they are certainly not seen in Plymouth numbers. 🙂
Okay ;
I’m reading the comments and wondering how apartment / condo dwellers are going to deal with charging .
I live in Southern California where they’re building super crowded apartments as fast as they can pull permits, the parking situations there are extremely crowded, how will this work ? .
-Nate
By adding charging outlets at the parking stalls?
There will be a number of challenges to overcome before 100% EV penetration will be achieved, which will of course not happen for quite a while yet.
Some states are already requiring new apartment buildings to be wired for chargers.
And it will become (actually already is) a marketable feature, in the same way that a pool, or a gym, or a rec center, or a dog parkm or just parking in general already is, none of which are strictly “necessary”, but help to make a place more desirable to some.
It’s not overly expensive to add a glorified dryer outlet to parking spaces when it’s planned in from the beginning of a build. That outlet would generally charge at a rate of 30-35 miles of charge per hour of being plugged in and be considered a level 2 charger.
The whole issue of charging electrics is becoming quite interesting. As a non-driver these days, you can count me as an interested observer.
Somewhere in my library there’s a Best of Old Cars Weekly from the late-seventies or early-eighties, in which an elderly gentleman tells of his experience working in an inner-city parking garage about 1920, and the setup they had for charging electrics. Among a discussion of the dangers, fume hazards, and the comfort of the car’s upholstery for grabbing a nap, he mentions collecting a client’s car from their home, driving it to the garage, putting it on charge overnight, then delivering it back to their home the next morning. I wonder whether that is a model that could take off – or would labour rates for the pickup and delivery bit be prohibitive these days?
The difference is that most people today who are buying a new EV already have covered parking with electric service.
Lots of mid market and upscale apartment complexes already have paid premium reserved parking, usually in a covered shed. Can’t imagine they’d turn down the opportunity to sell reserved parking with a charger stall.
The people who ultimately will have serious trouble with access to charging will be poor people who live in cheap old apartments without a private lot. They aren’t candidates for valet service.
@Jim Klein
All the above discussion on EV adapters in the US is worth a detailed CC report.
You would think all the EV producers would try to come up with a common connector. US government monopoly charges could be abated for the greater good of a common system to encourage EV adoption and long term environmental benefits.